000
FXUS64 KHUN 142331 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW ANALYSIS SHOW A BUILDING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AN UPPER LOW IS
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS NEWD OVER NWRN MEXICO WITH LEAD SHORTWAVES
ENTERING NRN MEXICO INTO TX. WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE 850 MB RIDGE MIGRATES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
INTO SRN AL/GA. WILL CARRY ON WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M80S AT MOST
PLACES, PROBABLY A BIT WARMER IN TN AND NW AL.

THE PRECIP FORECAST ON THU REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS THE UPPER
LOW LOSES STRENGTH AND THE COLD POCKET WARMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ONLY BE MODEST TO SAY THE LEAST. PINPOINTING LOCATIONS
OF STORMS WILL BE DIFFICULT, ALTHOUGH A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT/MOISTURE
BOUNDARY DRAPED NW-SE JUST TO OUR S MAY BE A BREEDING GROUND FOR
BETTER COVERAGE. SOUNDING FORECASTS OF MLCAPE ON THU ONLY INDICATE A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG, AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE VEERING, BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED AT THAT POINT WITH DECELERATING MID LEVEL FLOW.
WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR AFTN T ON THU, AND ONLY ISOLD T ON FRIDAY
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR E.

ESSENTIALLY, WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST GOING ABOUT AS IS.
THE LARGER TROF IN THE PLAINS REMAINS A QUESTION MARK EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG OF AN UPPER RIDGE CAN
MAINTAIN ITSELF IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT, A DAY 7-8 RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ALONG A MORE VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED, SO WILL MAINTAIN OUR CHC OF T ON TUE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. SW WINDS IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-20KT BY 15Z. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.