000
FXUS64 KHUN 150855
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
355 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A RATHER BUSY PATTERN PREVAILED ACROSS THE
GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED ACROSS
THE SE REGION WAS ON A FLATTENING TREND. A STORMY PATTERN PERSISTED
ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER REGION...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS...
ONE WEST OF VANCOUVER...ANOTHER ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN...AND ANOTHER
POSITIONED OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. A SURGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DECAYING RIDGE...MERGING WITH THE POLAR JET
HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION IN PROGRESS FROM THE SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

HOWEVER ON A LOCAL SCALE...QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE MID JUNE
CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS SO FAR IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SITUATED ACROSS IOWA WAS SENDING PERIODS OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA AS IT HEADS TO THE SE.

FOR THE SHORTER TERM...EFFECTS FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NW OF THIS REGION...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF EFFECTIVELY SHUNTS IT NORTH OF HERE. THUS UNDER
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO OR
ABOVE SEASONABLE READINGS THIS AFTERNOON...OR INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
AROUND 90. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. THE UPPER
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION GOING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS...DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD RISE INTO UPPER
80S.

SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE REALIZED.
NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING FROM LESS THAN
1.5 INCHES EARLY SUNDAY...TO NEARLY 2 INCHES MON/MON NIGHT. CAPE AND
SHEAR VALUES REMAIN TAMED...THUS PRIMARY RISKS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE THE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
SOME PAST SITUATIONS WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...HAVE NOTED THAT
SOME STORMS WERE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. HAVE STAYED WITH
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR MON/MON NIGHT AS A PATTERN OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES. THE 00Z GFS APPARENTLY
OVERDEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW EJECTING FROM THE FRONT RANGE MON-TUE AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAKER LOW DEPICTION AND COLD
FRONT FROM THE NAM/ECMWF LOOKS BETTER AND WAS MORE RELIED ON. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDWEEK...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH (PER ITS
STRONGER SURFACE LOW). IN BOTH CASES...MODEL PRECIP FORECASTS ARE
REDUCED...THEREFORE HAVE WENT ON A DRIER TREND AFTER MIDWEEK.
SEASONABLY WARM UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90S HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR
MID/LATTER NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
TO END THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING FROM MIDDAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    90  69  91  70 /   0  10  20  30
SHOALS        90  69  91  70 /   0  10  20  30
VINEMONT      87  66  88  69 /   0  10  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  88  67  89  70 /   0  10  20  30
ALBERTVILLE   87  67  85  68 /   0  10  20  30
FORT PAYNE    87  65  88  67 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.