000
FXUS64 KHUN 191940
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF ERN TN SWD
INTO NRN GA THIS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS BEING IMPACTED
MULTIPLE TIMES BY CELL TRAINING. THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS
MANAGED TO REMAIN JUST E OF THE AL/GA STATE LINE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED WELL E OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE
BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN TO THE W HAS MANAGED TO KEEP THE CNTRL/WRN
HALF OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HRS. CERTAINLY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
GIVEN THE AMPLE HEATING FROM TODAY. ENHANCED UPPER FORCING COUPLED
WITH ML CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD THEN DIMINISH
WITH THE ONSET OF THE EVENING PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NE.

OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WX CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED TO
PREVAIL INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS DRIER MID LEVEL MID AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE SE REGION SHIFTING TO THE
E ON MON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN GULF REMAINING FAIRLY
STAGNANT. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BOTH MON AND TUE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS HOVER
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE.

THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE GOING PAST MID
WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE NRN/MID PLAINS
SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. GLOBAL MODELS STILL
INDICATE A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WED/THU...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SWD INTO CNTRL TX. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL XPCTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED INTO THU...WITH THE FRONT THEN
WEAKENING AS IS CROSSES INTO THE CNTRL TN VALLEY. WITH AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WELL IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP STARTING TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION...AND THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY WED. PRECIP COVERAGE IS XPCTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY SCT INTO THU WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP THEN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE W LATE THU
AND INTO FRI AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E.

THERE STILL REMAINS A LITTLE BIT OF TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE
LATEST MODELS WITH THE REINFORCING FRONT DIVING SWD THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRI. NEVERTHELESS...SLIGHTLY MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL WX
CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS A RESULT THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
TAPER OFF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS KHSV STILL HAS A CHC OF VCSH OR
VCTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE...DUE TO RIDGING...OVER NW
AL SHOULD KEEP KMSL PCPN FREE. AFTER 00Z THE CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE
OVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z AT BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  89  68  89 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        67  90  68  90 /  10  10  10  20
VINEMONT      66  87  66  87 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  65  87  65  87 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   65  87  66  86 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    63  87  64  87 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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