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000
FXUS64 KHUN 170541 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1019 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
EVEN WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGELY FALLEN INTO THE 60S BY 10PM. THIS
IS AFTER AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S...JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS FOR MID MAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER 60S...WITH A W-E
GRADIENT AS WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA (I.E. COOLER IN THE
E).

TO OUR WEST A MCS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE ARK-LA-
MISS...WITH THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER S ARK
BUT ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXTENDING ACROSS NW MS IN THE DOWNWIND ANVIL
SHIELD. MOVEMENT OF THIS MCS IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR PRECIP
FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH BULK SHEAR VECTORS DIRECTED TOWARD THE NE AS
THE COMPLEX ROUNDS THE BASE AND COMES UP THE LEE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROF. MUCH OF THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS INDICATED THAT THE MCS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK NW OF OUR CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BUT THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTED BULK
SHEAR...LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A CHC RAIN BUT ONLY A SLT CHC
THUNDER ATTM SINCE THE BETTER CONVECTION CORE SHOULD STILL REMAIN
FURTHER WEST OF THE CWA. AS THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES CLOSER TO
THE CWA...MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO POOL N INTO THE CWA AND KEEP TD
VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND SLOW THE TEMP DROP OFF SLIGHTLY.

CCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASING THRU SUNRISE AS A COMPLEX OF SHRA/
TSRA APPROACHES FROM THE W. STILL ANTICIPATE CAT DROPS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL NEARER 12Z (OR AS EARLY AS 09Z). UNLESS STRONGER PRECIP CORES
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2KFT. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTN TOMORROW...WITH THE
AMT OF PRECIP RECEIVED PLAYING SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE HEIGHT OF A
CLOUD DECK AT THE END OF THE PERIOD (MORE RAIN SUGGESTS A LOWER CIG).

CCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.