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000
FXUS64 KHUN 250148
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
848 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
TWEAKED WINDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID 40S.
OTHERWISE A LARGE SFC HIGH WAS BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA WITH NW UPPER
FLOW. ONLY A FEW BLOWOFF CI CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
CONVECTION OVER TX/OK. CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD ATTM...HOWEVER DID
TWEAK THE WINDS. WILL ADD NEAR RECORD LOW WORDING (FOR SATURDAY MRNG)
IN THE MSL AND HSV ZONES.

RECORD LOW ON MAY 25, 2013 FOR HSV...IS 45 IN 1942.
RECORD LOW ON MAY 25, 2013 FOR MSL...IS 45 IN 1935.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 608 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL KEEP VFR CONDITONS FOR BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TROUGHING
NOTED ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS, AND RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN MCS CONTINUED MEANDERING SOUTHWARD OVER
SOUTHERN TX, WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE HIGH PLAINS (ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING U/L DISTURBANCE). LOCALLY, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AND CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX
THIS AFTN.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING, WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE, AND UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, MORNING LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC/ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD, A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. IT IS AT THIS POINT
IN THE FORECAST THAT THE DETAILS BEGIN TO GET MURKY...

AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, EXACTLY
WHERE IT SETS UP WILL BE ONE KEY PART TO THE EVENTUAL FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE OTHER KEY PART IS THAT THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL, PLACING
THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MCS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
WE`LL ACTUALLY SEE ANY ACTIVITY LOCALLY IS THE BIG QUESTION. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO NOT PERFORM WELL DURING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE TN VALLEY,
AND THEREFORE TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT.
AS SUCH, HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGY VS CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT, AND
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WETTER FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (SCHC POPS). THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

BEYOND MEMORIAL DAY, THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, MAKING FOR A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID END TO THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, MAKING FOR UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90-DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL NOT FORMALLY
INTRODUCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME JUST YET, AWAITING FURTHER MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.