Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FAVORS AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SPRING
2014. PRECIPITATION THIS WINTER HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RUNOFF HAVE CAUSED SOME MINOR FLOODING
ON AREA RIVERS. ALTHOUGH FLOODING HAS OCCURRED...THIS IS TYPICAL FOR
WINTER AND SPRING IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED
ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS OVER NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...BUT SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS NEAR NORMAL.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ISSUES A SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK EACH SPRING. THIS PRODUCT IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF
SOIL MOISTURE...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS...RESERVOIR LEVELS...AND
FUTURE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. SNOW COVER IN THE BASIN AS A WHOLE IS
FACTORED IN TO THE OUTLOOK...IF IT IS PRESENT. A SECOND SPRING FLOOD
OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED LATER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
2014 STARTED OFF WITH VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASSES INVADING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE
MONTH OF JANUARY. WHEN TEMPERATURES MODERATED CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
VALUES...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ENSUED. DESPITE THIS...MUCH OF
THE AREA RECEIVED RAINFALL TOTALS AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF
JANUARY. FEBRUARY SAW MUCH MORE RAINFALL FOR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING
BETWEEN 150 AND 200% OF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONTH. THESE
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
THE BANKHEAD FOREST IN SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
HUNTSVILLE TO WINCHESTER TENNESSEE. THESE LOCATIONS OBSERVED IN
EXCESS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH. ONLY LOCATIONS IN
FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH IN A ROW TO BEGIN 2014.

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME. SINCE NOVEMBER OF LAST YEAR...ONLY SLIVERS OF SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF WFO HUNTSVILLE`S HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) HAVE AT
ONE TIME OR ANOTHER BEEN INCLUDED IN A DROUGHT MONITOR. SINCE JANUARY
RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL...THE MAJORITY OF THE HSA WAS INCLUDED IN
D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) WITH THE JANUARY 28TH ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT
MONITOR. SINCE THIS TIME...ONLY FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA REMAINS IN THIS
DROUGHT CATEGORY WITH THE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL RECEIVED IN THESE
LOCATIONS. IF THE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE...MORE
COUNTIES WILL BE ADDED OVER THE COMING WEEKS AND MONTHS. THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL...WITH A HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST BEARING THE
BRUNT OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WERE LOWER IN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR DUE
TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THROUGHOUT THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY HAVE RISEN OVERALL TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE...RIVER
AND STREAM LEVELS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 100 T0 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
BEAR CREEK AND CEDAR CREEK LAKES ARE OPERATING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEIR
WINTER RECHARGE PHASES. TIMS FORD LAKE IS ALSO OPERATING ABOVE
NORMAL. ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER...GUNTERSVILLE...WHEELER...AND
WILSON ARE OPERATING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WINTER RECHARGE PHASES. AREAS
ALONG THE TENNESSEE DO NOT OFFICIALLY ENTER THEIR RECHARGE PHASES
UNTIL LATER IN MARCH AND APRIL...THOUGH LIKE LAST YEAR...MOST ARE
OPERATING AT THE TOP OF THEIR NORMAL OPERATING ZONE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
IT ALREADY.

THE OUTLOOK FOR RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE...AND GROUNDWATER
THROUGH EARLY MARCH IS FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE...WITH ONLY A COUPLE
OF EVENTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HYDROLOGIC AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST...MORE CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO
BE NOTED IN RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE...AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THIS AREA ARE GENERALLY HELD WITHIN A NORMAL
OPERATING RANGE THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. DURING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS
LATE LAST YEAR...THE RESERVOIRS WERE ABOVE THOSE RANGES. AS A
RESULT...WATER HAD TO BE RELEASED ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO HANDLE
THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...THE RESERVOIR LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

.7-DAY FORECAST...
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA EVERY THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE NEXT OF
THESE SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION.

.8-14 DAY FORECAST...
THE EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AREA FOR THE PERIOD OF MARCH 13TH THROUGH THE 19TH.

.MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

.SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING...
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING SEASON...MARCH THROUGH MAY...ISSUED BY
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

ABOVE NORMAL.....70%
NEAR NORMAL......15%
BELOW NORMAL.....15%

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH ALABAMA...WITH FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
DENOTED AS EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS...
PROBABILITIES OF LONG-TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TRIBUTARIES ARE PROVIDED WEEKLY BY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER IN SLIDELL LOUISIANA. THESE PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE
USED FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND FACTOR IN HISTORICAL CONDITIONS IN
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS. THEY DO NOT INCLUDE FUTURE RAINFALL.

THESE PROBABILITIES INDICATE AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE 90-
DAY PERIOD ENDING JUNE 5TH 2014...ABOUT 20 PERCENT ON THE FLINT
RIVER NEAR CHASE...ABOUT 40 PERCENT ON THE ELK RIVER ABOVE
FAYETTEVILLE...ABOUT 40 PERCENT ON THE PAINT ROCK RIVER NEAR
WOODVILLE...AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT ON THE BIG NANCE CREEK NEAR
COURTLAND.

THESE FIGURES ARE FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY. DO NOT USE THEM AS A
MEANS OF IGNORING FLOOD THREATS THAT MAY OCCUR WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
IF FLOOD OUTLOOKS...WATCHES...OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND PROPERTY!

.WRAPUP...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2014 IS AVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
HUNTSVILLE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...AND WILL MAINLY BE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN BY STORM SYSTEMS THAT AFFECT THE AREA.

THIS PRODUCT IS DESIGNED TO GIVE THE PUBLIC AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS AN OUTLOOK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DURING THE NEXT
FEW MONTHS...THE TRADITIONAL FLOODING SEASON. THIS AND OTHER
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK ON THE
LEFT. IT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TAB ABOVE THE WATCH/WARNING MAP
DISPLAYED ON THE WEBPAGE AS WELL.

***NATIONAL FLOOD SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK IS MARCH 17TH-21ST 2014.***

STREAM AND RAINFALL DATA ARE PROVIDED BY THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AUTHORITY...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE AND
BACKYARD WEATHER OBSERVERS. WE THANK THESE PARTNERS FOR THEIR
VALUABLE DATA.

&&

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK...PLEASE CONTACT:

CHELLY AMIN
HYDROLOGY PROGRAM MANAGER
NWS HUNTSVILLE
256.890.8503 (OPTION 2)

OR

CHRIS DARDEN
METEOROLOGIST-IN-CHARGE
NWS HUNTSVILLE 256.890.8503 EXT. 222

$$

AMIN



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