Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
AXUS74 KHUN 231558 CCA
DGTHUN
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-TNC051-103-127-251445-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
936 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...

SYNOPSIS...
ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID TUESDAY...JUNE 21ST 2016...
SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ CONDITIONS INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF
LIMESTONE...MORGAN AND MARSHALL COUNTIES...MUCH OF EASTERN LAWRENCE
COUNTY...AND ALL OF MADISON...JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES.
ALSO...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE ALL OF LINCOLN COUNTY...AND
NEARLY ALL OF FRANKLIN...AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE. WITH THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR NOW INCLUDING THE REMAINING CORNER OF
NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS WEEK (THAT WAS THE ONLY AREA WITH ABNORMALLY
DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS LAST WEEK)...NOW...ALL OF THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY
WARNING AREA IS INCLUDED IN EITHER MODERATE /D1/ OR SEVERE DROUGHT
/D2/CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING HOT AND
DRY AND NOT RECEIVING MUCH (IF ANYTHING) IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.
THOSE LUCKY ENOUGH TO BE UNDERNEATH THE VERY ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER
ACTIVITY ONLY RECEIVED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL...AT BEST.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS: THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND
COMMUNITY AFFAIRS (ADECA) OFFICE OF WATER RESOURCES CURRENTLY HAS NO
DROUGHT DECLARATIONS FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE STATE OF TENNESSEE
ALSO HAS NO OFFICIAL DECLARATION REGARDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE
STATE. ANY FUTURE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS WILL BE UPDATED HERE AS
NECESSARY. ALABAMA DECLARATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE OFFICE OF
WATER RESOURCES WEB SITE NOTED IN THE RELATED WEB SITES SECTION
BELOW.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:
PER THE LATEST CROP AND PROGRESS CONDITION REPORT FROM THE USDA
NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE, AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
AGENTS CONTINUE TO REPORT THAT CROPS ARE IN NEED OF RAIN. THE FARM
SERVICE AGENCY (FSA) IN COLBERT COUNTY REPORTED THAT WHEAT YIELDS
WERE BETTER THAN EXPECTED THIS YEAR AND THAT BENEFICIAL RAINS WERE
RECEIVED IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT IT WAS ALSO NOTED THAT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUED WITH A LACK OF RAIN IN OTHER AREAS. MOST
LOCATIONS NOTED THAT WHAT OTHER CROPS WERE PLANTED ARE STRUGGLING TO
GROW...AND THOSE THAT HAVE GROWN ARE BARELY SURVIVING IN LIMESTONE
COUNTY. EVERYONE IS PUTTING FARMING/PLANTING/FERTILIZING PLANS ON
HOLD WAITING ON RAINFALL.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION FIRE ALERT OR
DROUGHT EMERGENCIES ISSUED. STATE FORESTER GREG PATE IS STILL URGING
EVERYONE TO USE ALL NECESSARY SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHEN DOING ANY TYPE
OF OUTDOOR BURNING. TO OBTAIN A BURN PERMIT...CONTACT THE ALABAMA
FORESTRY COMMISSION DISPATCH CENTER FOR YOUR COUNTY. LOCAL COUNTY
AND CITY LAWS MAY RESTRICT OUTDOOR BURNING HOWEVER...SO BURNERS ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTACTING THEIR LOCAL GOVERNMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS NO CURRENT BURN RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE AND BURN PERMITS ARE CURRENTLY NOT REQUIRED BY THE
DIVISION. HOWEVER...BURNERS ARE URGED TO CHECK FOR ANY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO CONDUCTING BURNING ACTIVITY.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AVAILABLE FROM THE U.S. FOREST
SERVICE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM SHOWS VALUES NOW BETWEEN 500
AND 600 ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...INCLUDING SOME AREAS OF ADJACENT SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THESE VALUES INDICATE INCREASED GROUND FUEL AVAILABILITY
FOR WILDFIRES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
OVER THE LAST WEEK...RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL...AND WAS VERY SPOTTY
IN COVERAGE. MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO
NO RAINFALL. NORMAL WEEKLY RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
LITTLE OVER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE PAST WEEK.

DURING THE SPRING AND INTO MID-JUNE...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. AT HUNTSVILLE...THE PERIOD FROM MARCH
1ST TO JUNE 22ND RANKS AS THE 4TH WARMEST SUCH PERIOD ON RECORD. AT
MUSCLE SHOALS...THE SAME PERIOD RANKS AS THE 6TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
PRECIPITATION SINCE EARLY MARCH IS AROUND FOUR TO SIX INCHES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY
CONCENTRATED IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE LAST FEW MONTHS ARE AROUND
SIX TO EIGHT INCHES BELOW NORMAL. AT HUNTSVILLE...THE PRECIPITATION
TOTAL FOR THE MARCH 1ST TO JUNE 22ND PERIOD IS 11.17 INCHES...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
WHILE GENERALLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW (WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST)...WHICH IS A MORE
TYPICAL PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR JUNE. THIS SHOULD HOPEFULLY LEAD TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING TO OUR NORTH AND MOVING SOUTHWARD...WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MORE ORGANIZED CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE AREA. STAY
TUNED!

THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO /JUN 30TH - JUL 6TH/ FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA...AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR
THE MONTH OF JULY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR
BELOW...NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUNE 16TH TO SEPTEMBER
30TH NOW INDICATES THAT DROUGHT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE PERIOD.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE CURRENTLY UNDER THE MODERATE AND SEVERE DROUGHT
DESIGNATION REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS ARE LOWEST AT THE PAINT ROCK RIVER (2ND PERCENTILE)...
THE BIG NANCE CREEK (5TH PERCENTILE)...AND THE ELK RIVER (5TH
PERCENTILE). OTHER STREAMS IN THE AREA...INCLUDING LIMESTONE
CREEK...CYPRESS CREEK...MULBERRY FORK...THE FLINT RIVER AND SOUTH
SAUTY CREEK ARE IN THE 10TH TO 20TH PERCENTILES OF WEEKLY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LAKE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA VARY...WITH LAKES WITHIN THE HEAVILY
REGULATED TENNESSEE RIVER SYSTEM OPERATING WITHIN NORMAL POOL
LEVELS. OTHER LAKES INCLUDING BEAR CREEK...AND CEDAR CREEK...ARE
ALSO OPERATING WITHIN NORMAL RANGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GUNTERSVILLE...WHEELER...AND LEWIS SMITH LAKES ARE OPERATING WITHIN
THE LOWER RANGE OF NORMAL POOL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TIMS
FORD LAKE CONTINUES TO OPERATE BELOW THE NORMAL GUIDE CURVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE MINIMUM RECREATION LEVEL.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE LATEST DAILY SOIL
MOISTURE RANKINGS RANGE FROM THE 1ST TO 5TH PERCENTILES IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO AROUND THE 20TH PERCENTILE IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 5TH TO 10TH PERCENTILES.

THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY GROUNDWATER WELL SITES IN
LAWRENCE...DEKALB AND CULLMAN COUNTIES ALL INDICATE THAT GROUNDWATER
LEVELS FELL BELOW THE DAILY MEDIAN VALUE DURING THE MARCH TO LATE
APRIL PERIOD. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT ALL SITES HAVE SINCE REMAINED
BELOW NORMAL AND VALUES HAVE CONTINUED A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS...ESPECIALLY AT THE LAWRENCE AND CULLMAN
COUNTY WELL SITES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS FOR
GRADUAL DECREASES IN STREAMFLOWS TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE EXPECTED DRY
AND HOT CONDITIONS. GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO FALL SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY IF THE WETTER AND COOLER
PATTERN DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
SINCE SOME OF THE AREA IS UNDER SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS...THE
NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED NEXT THURSDAY...JUNE 30TH.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
/USE LOWER CASE/

FOR MORE DROUGHT INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE. THERE YOU CAN FIND MORE DROUGHT
RELATED INFORMATION BY CLICKING ON THE DROUGHT LINK NEAR THE BOTTOM
OF THE PAGE.

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ALABAMA DROUGHT DECLARATIONS...VISIT
HTTP://WWW.ADECA.ALABAMA.GOV/DIVISIONS/OWR/PAGES/DEFAULT.ASPX

FOR INFORMATION FROM THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION...VISIT
HTTP://FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV/

RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

STREAMFLOWS ARE OBTAINED FROM THE USGS AT...
HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/INDEX.PHP

LAKE LEVELS FOR THE TENNESSEE RIVER LAKES CAN BE OBTAINED FROM
HTTP://WWW.TVA.COM/LAKEINFO/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES OF ALABAMA AND
TENNESSEE.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE
320A SPARKMAN DRIVE
HUNTSVILLE AL 35805
PHONE: 256-890-8503
SR-HUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

CA/KDW



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