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000
FXUS64 KJAN 180920
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
420 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Today through Tonight...

Today: Water vapor/RAP imagery indicate weakening cold core lifting
into the Great Lakes while another is diving over south-central
Canada. Quasi-zonal flow aloft has set up across the region. There
are a few radar returns across the region but most has dissipated.
With continued southwesterly return flow of warmth/moisture,
widespread clouds & low stratus are ongoing across the region.
Patchy dense fog remains possible in the Pine Belt in southeast MS
overnight, so ongoing HWO graphic is in good shape. Seasonably warm
temps are ongoing this morning, in the mid 60s east of the I-55
corridor to low 70s along & west of the I-55 corridor. As mean
longwave trough/cold core deepens over south-central Canada, a weak
sfc low to lift northeast into the Mid West, dragging a cold front
southeast towards the Mid South to ArkLaTex. Expect increased
chances of showers & some storms for areas along & northwest of the
Natchez Trace, with highest chances to the northwest & in the Hwy 82
corridor today. With steepening mid-level lapse rates/vertical
totals in the upper 20s to near 30 deg C & mean bulk shear around 20-
40kts, some isolated severe storms are possible. Main adjustment was
to focus the Marginal a touch further north & add timing, with some
potential as early as late aftn (4-6PM) but most probable after
that. Timing should end around midnight but could persist in the Hwy
82 corridor if any convective complex is going off to the northwest.
Main concerns are gusty winds & hail up to quarter size. Expect
seasonably warm highs in the low-mid 80s.

Tonight: Broad cold core/frontal system will extend from the Hudson
Bay region down towards the OH Valley & moving into the Mid South to
ArkLaMiss region this evening through daybreak Friday. Southwesterly
return flow will become more westerly into the overnight hours. Sfc
winds gradually shifting to the northwest in the wake of the front
in the extreme northwest ArkLaMiss Delta region around daybreak.
With isolated strong to severe storms winding down around midnight
or so, some rain & isolated storm chances will remain confined to
the Hwy 82 corridor. Another round of low stratus & patchy fog are
possible in the Pine Belt. HREF probs are low enough that limit
confidence in dense fog but patchy fog is possible southeast of the
Natchez Trace & into the Pine Belt. Held off any mention in the HWO
graphics but will need to be monitored. Expect another night of
seasonably warm lows in the mid-upper 60s, some 10-15 deg. F above
normal. /DC/

Friday through next Wednesday...

As day breaks on Friday, a cold front will be in the process of
dropping southeast into and through the CWA. This will again
maintain some rain chances across mainly northern portions of the
CWA Friday afternoon. However, early Saturday morning into Sunday,
a couple of disturbances will shift east across the region under
zonal flow. This will result in decent chances for showers, along
with some isolated thunder, across the forecast area Saturday into
Sunday as cooler drier conditions will advect into the region.

As this system exits the region late Sunday night into Monday,
northerly winds will persist as high pressure to the northwest
builds into the forecast area.  Quiet weather and drier air will
exist across the region Monday into Tuesday.  Winds will steadily
become more easterly Monday night and southerly on Tuesday, with
warming conditions expected Tuesday into Wednesday. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A very humid boundary layer & light southerly wind continue to
support early morning dense fog development over the PIB/HBG
area. Otherwise, expect low stratus to develop generally from
south to north, generally after 18/08-09Z & ceilings to lower to
LIFR/IFR restrictions in the 18/09-15Z time frame on average.
Ceilings should lift with VFR conditions returning by afternoon in
continued warm southerly flow. Some SHRA or TSRA are psbl this
aftn to evening across central-northern TAF sites, but confidence
is too low to introduce in the 06Z TAF cycle. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  66  84  65 /  20  10  10  10
Meridian      84  66  86  64 /  20  10  20  10
Vicksburg     85  66  82  62 /  20  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   85  67  88  63 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       85  66  86  65 /  20  10  10   0
Greenville    83  66  73  56 /  40  50  10  20
Greenwood     84  66  76  59 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/19/DC