382
FXUS64 KJAN 022351
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
651 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Tonight into Thursday May 9th...This afternoon, we have the
decaying/remnants of the morning MCS over the W half of the area.
The left-over MCVs are identifiable on radar "spinning" and
helping to kick off some shower/iso storm activity on the N and SE
periphery. Look for these trends to continue through the
remainder of the afternoon, but we will still see limitations due
to lack of more quality moisture return. Overall, the near term
part of the forecast remains a challenge as meso-scale elements
are a huge driver right now. Hi-res CAM guidance helps us much of
the time with detail and great timing...but this regime is not one
which they perform well. So, with such guidance struggle so much,
having confidence in specifics or in overall PoPs is not very
good. One such result is PoPs for tonight. It was quite high
(60-80%) in the NW/N...but current trends and limitations noted
earlier, favor much less in the way of rain/storm chances. Due to
this, PoPs were lowered quite a bit from the starting guidance.

Friday, again...not much confidence as guidance has high PoPs for
much of the area. We will see a wave (likely remnant MCV) or
possibly a decaying MCS again. CAM guidance is a bit all over the
map and there`s a decent signal from the global models for precip.
The end result is overall medium to high PoPs (60-80%) for Friday. I
can`t argue against this and those seem sufficient until clarity
comes into play more, which may not be until later tonight, early
Friday.

For the weekend, Sat-Sun, warm and above normal conditions will
continue, along with mid-range PoPs (30-50%). This is a result of
our region being near a boundary and having an opportunity to get
moisture return back across the area. Also, we remain in the
perturbed flow regime with waves/MCVs tracking eastward from the big
convective systems from TX. For the most part, this or any activity
looks typical/routine, but it`s early May and we could sneak a day
in there with good lapse rates which would boost instability. Storm
hazard analysis will need to be a day by day process through this
weekend and update as needed.

Next week...look for a pattern shift as we will see more ridging in
place starting Monday with a predominant warm anomaly in the lower
levels as S/SW lower level flow locks in with the large surface high
getting established across the SE coast toward Bermuda. Such a
regime will result in mid to upper 80s with lower 90s by mid week in
a good portion of the forecast area. The larger scale pattern won`t
persist too long as we will see a powerful system push out of
Rockies later Mon into Tue. This will keep us in that "ridge" type
regime into mid-week, but there will be another pattern adjustment
overall. The powerful system looks to carve out a anomalous
mid/upper low over the central US with resulting lower heights. This
will in-turn increase the height gradient over the Mid-South and
southern US supporting increased mid/upper level winds in a quasi-
zonal regime. A surface boundary looks to migrate southward as well,
esp by late week. So, what does all this start to mean...such a
pattern looks to favor an active severe weather period sometime from
later Wed into early Sat. Global guid is catching on to this
pattern, but there`s expected timing differences. At a minimum,
support is increasing for at least one round of severe storms but
this could easily result in more than one before a strong cold front
for May pushes through. Instability has the potential to be quite
high due to steep lapse rates and I already noted the potential for
fast mid/upper level flow, which will only help organize things.
This is in the Day 7-9 range and remember the uncertainty in timing.
Just wanted to bring attention to the potential in advance. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Other than a few SHRA ongoing near GLH & approaching GWO in the
VC, SHRA isn`t expected to be a concern through most of the
overnight period. Onset of low ceilings will be between
02/06-09z, starting at MVFR then lower down to IFR-LIFR, with
most restrictive flight categories (i.e.LIFR stratus & some
fog/BR) at PIB/HBG near daybreak 02/11-14Z Friday. Expect
improvements to MVFR-VFR into mid-morning to early Friday aftn,
when increased SHRA & iso TSRA are psbl. Light southerly sfc
winds, generally up to 10mph & brief gusts up to 20mph, are psbl
through the end of the 00Z TAF cycle. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  79  64  85 /  30  70  30  30
Meridian      67  84  64  87 /  20  60  30  40
Vicksburg     67  79  64  86 /  30  80  30  30
Hattiesburg   68  83  65  89 /  20  40  20  20
Natchez       67  79  64  86 /  20  70  20  20
Greenville    69  79  66  84 /  50  80  40  40
Greenwood     68  79  65  84 /  40  80  40  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/DC