178
FXUS64 KMOB 282054
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
353 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

While most areas remain dry this afternoon, there have been a few
light rain showers that have developed over southeast Mississippi.
These showers have developed as a result of some weak isentropic
ascent and given that there is decent instability present, we
could see a brief thunderstorm or two develop through the
remainder of the afternoon over western portions of the area. This
activity will dissipate by this evening with dry conditions
prevailing overnight. Low temperatures will drop to around 60
degrees over south central Alabama with lower and middle 60s
expected across the remainder of our inland areas. Near the coast,
lows will linger in the upper 60s. Breezy conditions this
afternoon will also ease this evening.

The next chance for rain will arrive on Monday as upper level
ridging slides eastward and out over the western Atlantic. At the
same time, an upper level shortwave slowly approaches and moves
into the Lower Mississippi Valley region. Increased forcing will
spread across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley late
tonight and into early Monday morning as the shortwave approaches.
Hi-res guidance is in decent agreement with most models
indicating a cluster/line of storms pushing across portions
Louisiana and southern Mississippi in the early morning hours with
isolated convection developing over our southeast Mississippi
counties. The cluster of storms will begin to move into the local
area and weaken through Monday afternoon as the upper shortwave
pivots eastward across Mississippi and into western portions of
Alabama. While there are still some discrepancies with how far
east the complex will make it, most of the current CAM guidance
suggests the complex will dive southeastward over Louisiana with
it clipping our southeast Mississippi and far southwestern Alabama
counties before moving out over the Gulf waters. MLCAPE values
could still increase up to 500- 1000 J/KG across southeast
Mississippi and far southwest Alabama by Monday afternoon which
will be sufficient to support thunderstorms. However, low level
and deep layer shear does not appear to be overly impressive with
this system so the overall severe threat remains marginal in our
western zones at this time. If the convective line is able to
maintain itself tomorrow afternoon, there could be a strong or
perhaps severe storm tomorrow afternoon capable of producing
damaging wind gusts mainly over our southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama counties, but confidence in this potential
remains low at this time. High temperatures on Monday will warm
into the lower 80s inland with upper 70s along the coast.

Beach Note: Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in
deadly rip currents and increased surf heights along all area
beaches through early this week. Local lifeguards reported flying
red and double red beach warning flags today, meaning that the
Gulf Waters are closed to the public. The HIGH risk of rip
currents remains in effect through early this week. Surf will also
remain high between 4-7 feet this afternoon before slowly coming
down to 3- 5 feet by late Monday afternoon or early Monday
evening. A High Surf Advisory will remain in effect through 7 PM
Monday. /14

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

An upper shortwave trough axis just west of the mid/lower
Mississippi River Monday evening will shift east of the river by
late Monday night, and then over the southeast states through
Tuesday night. An upper ridge will then build over the southeast
Wednesday into Thursday, with the axis shifting over East Coast by
noon Friday. A weakly organized surface ridge extending from the
Western Atlantic over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and north
Florida shifts eastward through Tuesday night, and then rebuilds
back into the region from the northeast as the upper ridge
develops. Deep layer moisture with PWAT values in the 1.5"-1.8"
range Monday night decreases as mid/upper level dry air moves over
the southeast states with the departing upper trough.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and west of
the Alabama River late Monday afternoon will spread eastward
through the overnight hours into Tuesday. There will be decent
instability (SBCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range) Monday night, and
when combined with marginal wind shear, there may be a strong to
marginally severe storm but organized storms are not expected.
Precipitation decreases through mid-week with the decreasing
moisture levels and increasing subsidence, but as low level flow
becomes better organized by the end of the week into the weekend,
moistures levels increase again. Enough subsidence from the upper
ridge remaining over the southeast states will help to temper rain
chances for the coming weekend. The best chance of rain (20-30%)
will be over the northwestern portion of the forecast area
Wednesday afternoon, followed by a 20% chance of storms each
afternoon Friday through the weekend over the northwestern portion
of the forecast area.

High temperatures near seasonal norms (low 80s) on Tuesday will
increase to 2 to 6 degrees above normal (mid/upper 80s) mid week
and beyond. Low temperatures will continue to range from 5 to 10
degrees above normal in the low to mid 60s. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the marine
area through late tonight for southeasterly winds averaging
between 15-25 kts and frequent gusts up to around 30 kt possible.
Seas of 5-8 feet are also expected offshore through late tonight.
Southeasterly winds begin to diminish along with subsiding seas
through the early part of this week. A light to occasionally
moderate onshore flow will then prevail through the middle to late
part of the the week. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  81  66  82  65  84  65  85 /   0  40  50  50  10  20   0   0
Pensacola   68  79  68  80  68  81  67  82 /   0  10  30  40   0  10   0   0
Destin      68  78  68  79  68  81  68  82 /   0   0  20  30   0  10   0   0
Evergreen   59  83  62  83  62  87  62  90 /   0  20  40  50  10  10   0  10
Waynesboro  63  83  62  83  63  86  62  87 /   0  60  70  40  10  30   0  10
Camden      60  83  62  81  62  86  61  87 /   0  30  60  50  10  10   0  10
Crestview   59  83  62  82  62  87  61  89 /   0  10  20  40   0  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>634-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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