Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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821 FXUS65 KABQ 052357 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 557 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 554 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Winds are expected to increase behind a Pacific cold front this evening across northwest NM. Latest guidance suggest strong winds will persist for several hours behind the frontal passage. Therefore, have added a few zones into the Wind Advisory across northwest NM from the current time through 2am MDT. New NPW already out. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Windy and dry conditions will persist through midweek. This will lead to an extended period of high fire danger for much of northern and central New Mexico. A cold front moving through the area tonight into tomorrow will lead to markedly cooler temperatures Monday. Temperatures will rebound on Tuesday, only to fall back below normal Wednesday through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast on Thursday through the weekend, favoring northern New Mexico before expanding southward and eastward. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Upper level closed low currently centered over northeast NV this afternoon will continue to trek east through the Central Rockies tonight and Monday. The combined jet core (Asian Pacific and subtropical jets) on its southern periphery will move over the northern two thirds of NM tonight with another wind maxima moving through, slightly farther south, on Monday. Strong to very strong south to southwest winds will continue for much of the forecast area overnight as a result. Upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for the Sangre de Cristo mountains and Bartlett/Johnson mesas and Raton Pass areas late tonight into Monday morning. Critical layer near mountain top level could result in mountain waves crashing to the lee of the eastern sub range peaks. Lower valley and basin locations should be able to decouple from the strong winds for several hours Monday morning, but they will be quick to ramp back up behind the surface cold frontal passage as winds aloft remain strong through the day and into Monday evening. Mainly isolated rain with snow showers above 6,500 feet or so are expected to move into far northwest and north central NM after midnight tonight, lingering until around sunrise or so. Cooler air will move in behind the frontal passage with areas in western and central NM cooling high temperatures on Monday 5 to 15 degrees F compared to today`s readings. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 As the 534dam H5 low whisks northward into the far northern Great Plains, a tight pressure gradient drapes itself over northern and central NM. The 120 kt H3 jet`s position favors CO Tuesday, but a stout swath of 55 kt H7 winds hug the northern mts in the afternoon. Meanwhile, a lee-side low deepens to 989mb, setting the stage for perhaps the windiest day of the stretch. The strongest winds will favor the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mts and their adjacent highlands in the afternoon. The upper low continues its dance around the Dakotas Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing winds to remain elevated overnight. The low finally disengages and pushes eastward on Wednesday, with cooler air following in its wake. Winds will still be breezy to windy on Wednesday but not nearly to extent of Tuesday`s winds. A secondary piece of energy breaks off in the low`s departure Wednesday night, oscillating over the Great Basin. This will offer a reprieve to the prolonged amplified winds and critically dry conditions. Cooler air and an influx of modest moisture will give rise to showers and thunderstorms Thursday, favoring the northern mts that afternoon and expanding southward and eastward on Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Strong and gusty south to southwest winds will continue this evening with gusts between 35 and 45kt. Around 03Z, a Pacific cold front will push into western NM. This front will race eastward through the overnight hours, switching winds around to the west or northwest, but winds will remain strong. Gusts near 50kt will be possible across the Sangre de Cristo Mtns and around KCQC. There may be a brief period where winds relax around sunrise, but west to northwest winds will quickly ramp back up again Monday morning. Wind gusts between 35 and 45kt will be common across eastern NM, while gusts between 25 and 35kt will be common across western NM. Areas of blowing dust will be possible through Sunday. Additionally, a few rain and mountain snow showers will be possible this evening and overnight across northwest and north central NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY UNTIL 10 PM FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... ...RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 10 PM AREAWIDE DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 11 PM AREAWIDE DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... An expansive closed low moving east through the Central Rockies tonight and Monday will continue to result in widespread critical fire weather condtions through at least Tuesday and most likely through Wednesday. Strong south to southwest winds will continue overnight with a mostly dry cold front passing through the forecast area. Expect a wind shift late tonight into Monday morning from a south to southwesterly direction to westerly direction behind the cold front. West winds are then quick to kick in late Monday morning, continuing through Monday evening before diminishing somewhat Monday night. Tuesday continues to look like the peak day for critical fire weather conditions during the next week with minimum relative humidity in the single digits just about areawide for a good portion of the day. Winds decrease on Wednesday but remain strong enough to result in critical fire weather condtions for much of the forecast area. A backdoor front remains on track to put at least a temporary end to the critical conditions Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for north central and northeast NM Friday and for much of the forecast area next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 36 62 34 71 / 40 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 24 57 24 65 / 70 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 32 58 31 69 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 29 63 28 71 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 32 59 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 33 64 30 72 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 35 63 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 42 69 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 38 64 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 75 30 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 77 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 24 51 25 59 / 60 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 40 59 39 68 / 10 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 39 59 39 69 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 52 34 61 / 20 5 0 0 Red River....................... 28 49 26 57 / 10 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 29 51 22 59 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 33 59 27 68 / 10 0 0 0 Mora............................ 37 58 35 67 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 44 67 36 76 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 40 61 39 70 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 41 65 36 74 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 70 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 47 71 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 73 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 72 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 47 75 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 71 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 73 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 47 72 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 47 73 39 81 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 44 66 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 46 71 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 51 80 44 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 61 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 42 65 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 41 65 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 67 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 38 62 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 43 67 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 44 68 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 67 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 43 62 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 43 65 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 45 65 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 63 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 54 72 41 79 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 50 68 40 76 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 55 75 41 83 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 71 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 55 75 42 84 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 57 79 45 85 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 57 82 44 87 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 53 78 42 85 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 56 89 49 92 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 52 78 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 52 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 AM MDT Monday for NMZ201>205. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-106- 109-120>124. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ101- 104>106-109-120>126. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ227-228. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT Monday for NMZ213>215-223-227. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...34