172
FXUS61 KAKQ 060718
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
318 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with
daily chances of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, will impact
the region this afternoon. Heavy rain also expected with localized
flooding possible.

- Hot and humid conditions today

A warm front has progressed N of the region early this morning as SW
flow sets up aloft. Showers and thunderstorms from yesterday have
diminished in strength and coverage, but a few lighter showers remain
over eastern portions of the area. These will continue to push east
through the morning. With ongoing WAA and thick cloud cover, temps
remain mild this morning with latest obs reflecting mid-upper 60s.
Saturation and little to no wind in the piedmont have allowed for fog
formation, but obs do not indicate widespread dense fog yet
(i.e. vis < 1/4 mile). Will continue to monitor and issue
advisories as needed.

A strong shortwave will move through the area today, leading to
formation of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Continued
south-southwesterly flow at the surface will bring warm temps
and plentiful moisture. Despite cloudy conditions, temps will
rise to the low 80s E of I-95 and upper 70s to the W and on the
Eastern Shore by the early afternoon with dewpoints in the mid-
upper 60s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected impact the FA
starting early to mid afternoon. Highest coverage will likely be
in the SW half of the FA to start, then showers/storms press NE
through the evening and into tonight. Given the moisture
profile (PWATs around 1.5"), heavy rain is definitely within
reason. This, combined with portions of the area receiving 1-2"
of rain in the last couple of days, has justified placement of a
marginal ERO over most of VA (W of the Bay). There will be no
short supply of instability today with mean HREF MLCAPE
indicating widespread 1100+ J/Kg. Thus, a few storms may become
strong to severe. However, a lack of shear and meager mid- level
lapse rates will limit the threat to damaging winds. The area
with the best chance for stronger storms will be in the SE and
the peninsulas where instability will be higher and low-level
lapse rates look to approach 8.5 C/km. Showers/storms taper off
after midnight tonight, lingering the longest over the Eastern
Shore. Mild again tonight with lows in the low-mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain Monday
  through Wednesday

- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid
  conditions

Mon and Tue mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will
persist through at least Thu. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in
a mainly zonal flow aloft plus a lee trough, will lead to off
and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally
diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late
evening. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Mon,
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. HREF mean CAPE shows
values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore,
severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two.
Lows Mon night in the lower to mid 60s. Increasingly warmer and
humid for Tue and Wed, with chances for mainly aftn/evening
showers and tstms. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Tue, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Wed. At this time, there will
be the potential for strong or severe storms Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Warm and humid conditions will continue for Wed into Thu
evening, then drier air and closer to normal temps will return
for Fri through Sun. Stronger 500 mb flow combined with
shortwave energy/sfc trough will likely result in the potential
for strong or severe storms Thu into Thu evening. A cold front
and upper trough will then push across the region Fri through
Fri evening, producing more showers and possibly tstms. Except
for slight or small chances for showers Sat through Sun, near or
slightly below normal temps and more comfortable humidity will
prevail. Highs will range through the 80s Thu, in the mid to
upper 70s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Shower activity continues to continues to decrease in coverage
and intensity. However, light showers will continue to be
possible through the rest of tonight and into the early morning
(along the coast) at all terminals. BKN/OVC sky cover lingers
through Mon night with CIGs initially VFR/MVFR (intermittent IFR
at RIC). CIGs gradually lower to MVFR and then IFR/LIFR from W
to E through the rest of the night with IFR CIGs at SBY/RIC/PHF
likely before sunrise. RIC is starting to see some IFR CIGs
already, but SBY and ORF should hold off until ~8-10z. CIGs
improve to MVFR by mid- late morning and to VFR Mon afternoon.
Additionally, given the rain today, patchy to widespread fog is
expected to develop inland early this morning with IFR/MVFR
VIS. The lowest VIS is expected to be across the Piedmont,
however, it may reach as far as RIC. Any fog quickly lifts by
Mon morning. More rounds of scattered showers and storms are
likely Mon afternoon and evening. Winds remain generally light
and variable overnight (S/SE), becoming SW/SSW 5-10 kt Mon
(highest along the coast).

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through
Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Sfc high pressure (~1025mb) is centered well off the coast of
New England/ SE of Nova Scotia early this morning with
yesterday`s frontal boundary now N of the local waters. The
wind is from the S at 10-15 kt, with seas are ~3 ft, and waves
1-2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay. Overall, a summerlike pattern will
prevail through Wed, with a SSE to SW wind averaging ~10 kt
with gusts less than 20 kt so outside of any tstms, conditions
will be sub- SCA. SW winds look to increase a bit Thursday in
advance of an approaching cold front, and could reach SCA by
Friday/Friday night as winds turn NW behind the front as some
CAA spreads over the region. The models still differ quite a bit
with timing and the position/evolution of the storm track Fri
into Sat so the forecast remains uncertain during this period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through 6 AM this
  morning for Dorchester/Wicomico as the high tide cycle
  lingers. Elsewhere, all other Coastal Flood Advisories have
  been discontinued.

SSE winds and a higher astronomical tide last evening/early
this morning has allowed low-end minor flooding to be realized
at Lewisetta, Crisfield, Bishop`s Head, and Cambridge. As for
currents at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay over the next 24
hrs, it will generally be neutral or slightly favoring ebbing
per CBOFS output and latest obs. As such, expect tidal
departures to drop off by a few tenths of a foot across the
mid/upper Bay with no additional flooding later today (aside
from localized nuisance flooding). Some nuisance to localized
low- end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will still be possible
with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Tuesday morning
and again early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests the high
tide cycle early Thursday morning could see a bit more in the
way of low-end minor flooding (mainly due to astronomical tides
climbing slightly by late this week).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ021-022.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...AM/RMM
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...