867
FNUS71 KAKQ 011328
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Chippoax GC Prescribed Burn...Department of Forestry
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
928 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and warm weather will prevail Thursday as high pressure
builds across the region with afternoon min RH values 35-40%. A
very light SW wind in the morning will become 5 to 10 mph during
the afternoon. A backdoor front drops across the region on Friday,
with rain chances increasing Saturday.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (37100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 52 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  44  44  31  19  6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Weather cov.....PTY
Weather type....FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............60  62  63  68  73  79  83  84  86  87  87  87
RH..............100 97  93  81  68  58  47  44  39  38  36  36
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..1   1   2   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.2   2   3   5   5   6   6   8   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.1 4.0 4.9 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.1   1   1   2   5   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
LVORI...........10  8   7   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............1   1   1   5   12  23  30  36  41  46  51  52
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   1   3   8   15  21  25  29  32  36  37
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 31.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........9            21           39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
Temp............84           72           64
RH..............41           64           81
20 FT wind......S 5G8        S 4G6        SW 4G6
Mix hgt (ft)....4000         400          400
Transport wind..SW 6         S 5          S 6
LVORI...........1            3            5
ADI.............31           2            3
Haines index....5            4            4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21           2            2
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

$$
Forecaster...ZIMMERMAN
Requested by...Cody Noblitt
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412902.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cody.noblitt@dof.virginia.gov