Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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228 FXUS64 KAMA 031115 AAA AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 615 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low clouds should dissipate from west to east today. As the low clouds give way to sunshine, instability will increase. A minor upper level short wave may also move across the Panhandles during afternoon heating. Therefore, some showers and thunderstorms may form given the added instability, lift, and moisture. A line of better organized thunderstorms is expected to move through the Panhandles overnight along a cold front. Models are in disagreement on just how widespread the thunderstorms will be overnight. There are a few models that believe that the line of storms will produce an outflow just as it moves into the Oklahoma Panhandle. This outflow would then move out ahead of the storms effectively cutting off the inflow into the storms and causing them to weaken. At any rate, there could be some severe storms both today and overnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. But certainly can not rule out a tornado. On Saturday and Saturday night, more showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with upslope flow behind the front and an upper level disturbance. The atmosphere may have to have time to recover from any storms that move through tonight, so the better chance of rain may come Saturday night. Highs today are expected to be in the 70`s with a few 80`s in the west. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60`s to lower 70`s. && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Sunday and Monday look to be the more impactful days of the long term forecast. Rain showers and thunderstorms may continue off and on throughout the day on Sunday. The next upper level system looks to remain off to the north on Monday and the return of strong west winds will bring fire weather concerns. The rest of next work week looks to feature near to above average temperatures and dry conditions. A shortwave trough will continue moving across the region on Sunday and should be east of the CWA by Sunday evening. The lift provided by the wave should aid in developing scattered showers and storms on Sunday. Cloud cover will decrease from west to east during the afternoon hours and highs should be around average on Sunday. The next H500 trough will be stronger but looks to remain north of the area. The base of the trough looks to move over portions of southeast Colorado into western Kansas. This would leave most of the Panhandles on the dry and windy side. The only exception may be the far east which could have a few showers or storms develop later in the day. Gusty west winds are likely on Monday and dry air at the surface will lead to fire weather conditions for areas that have not received rainfall to aid in greening up. Temperatures should also increase into the upper 70s to upper 80s across the area. Mainly zonal flow looks to prevail Tuesday through the remainder of the extended forecast. Breezy winds are possible each of the days along with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Model guidance hints that a cold front may move across the region late next week which could bring cooler temperatures to the area. Muscha && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 IFR and MVFR conditions will improve into the VFR range this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but the chances of any of these storms affecting a TAF site are low, so have not mentioned them. A cold front moves through late in this forecast. Conditions are expected to become MVFR behind the front. Some thunderstorms may affect the GUY TAF site late in this forecast with the front, but confidence in a storm affecting the TAF site is low, so will not mention them at this point. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 74 51 68 51 / 30 40 40 70 Beaver OK 79 49 67 48 / 20 80 20 40 Boise City OK 75 43 66 45 / 30 40 10 30 Borger TX 78 52 71 53 / 20 50 30 60 Boys Ranch TX 78 50 70 51 / 30 40 20 60 Canyon TX 74 51 68 51 / 30 40 40 70 Clarendon TX 72 54 69 54 / 40 40 60 80 Dalhart TX 75 44 67 46 / 20 40 10 40 Guymon OK 76 46 67 46 / 20 70 10 40 Hereford TX 79 52 71 51 / 30 30 40 70 Lipscomb TX 78 52 67 51 / 20 70 40 60 Pampa TX 74 53 68 52 / 20 50 40 60 Shamrock TX 75 55 70 54 / 40 50 70 80 Wellington TX 76 55 72 54 / 40 70 70 80 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...15