102
FXUS63 KAPX 011721
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
121 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger in our southeast areas this
  afternoon/evening.

- Occasional rain chances into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers continue to quickly exit off to the east this morning
with increasing sun and rebounding temperatures already underway...
most notably across northern lower. Just some generally minor
tweaks to pops and cloud cover through the day. Otherwise, the
inherited forecast remains in good shape. For further details,
see the short term forecast section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern/synopsis: Another occluded surface low is seen upstream,
over northern MN. A triple-point is over w central WI, with the
warm front extending toward southern Lake MI and far sw lower
MI. This low will fill as it moves east, over and east of Lk
Superior today. Trailing the low, high pressure builds toward
upper and central lower MI tonight.

Forecast: A band of rain showers is advancing into northern MI
this morning. Precip that has reached nw lower MI is (and will
remain) on the light side. A more substantial slug of rain is
heading toward upper MI. On the back edge of this precip band, a
few lightning strikes have been occurring, especially near MNM.
Though instability decreases with eastward extent, it isn`t
quite zero here (up to 200j/kg). May mention some isolated
morning thunder in the west. Total rainfall amounts thru this
morning will range from about 0.25" in eastern upper MI, to
circa 0.15" in the tip of the mitt, to 0.10" or less further
south.

Highest pops will be this morning. This afternoon, most of
northern lower MI is dry; perhaps far northern lower could still
see a stray shower. A better chance for showers lasts in eastern
upper MI, with even a slight chance into early tonight. Partial
clearing occurs this afternoon south of M-32, which will allow
for warm temps there. Highs in the south half from the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Mid 50s to mid 60s in the north.

Fire wx issues: breezy to windy wnw winds this afternoon, and
warm temps. Rh values are presently progged to lower close to 30
percent near Saginaw Bay...which is also one part of the
forecast area progged to see the least QPF. Elevated fire danger
will be mentioned for HTL-Mio-Harrisville and points se.

Tonight...relatively cloudy skies persist in the north. In the
south, partial cloud cover starts to increase again late ahead
of our next system. Any precip likely waits until Thursday. Min
temps mainly within a few degrees of 40f.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper trough and sfc low track to the west of northern Michigan
Thursday, cold front to follow on Friday as system advects north-
northeastward. Rain showers expected as a result with some
embedded/isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Another quick
hitting disturbance is progged to move across the region this
weekend with some more showery activity. Heights begin to build
early next week in response to another upper trough moving across
the middle portions of the country.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Currently in a pattern that facilitates rain chances every
couple/few days it seems, which will continue through this weekend
at the very least. Low pressure system will track to the west of N
MI Thursday into Friday, resulting in warm, moist advection and thus
the chance for rain showers. Guidance suggests the best zone of
precip will be west of I-75, but most locations should get in on the
action heading into Friday as the frontal boundary focuses
additional showers. Couple models suggesting elevated instability
resulting in some embedded thunderstorm activity Thursday evening
into early Friday, but others are quite warm aloft and thus are not
as impressive. Nevertheless, at least some chance exists for
elevated embedded convection Thursday night and then isolated
thunderstorms Friday. All in all, some areas could see some
beneficial, wetting rains.

Next piece of energy aloft will move through this weekend resulting
in additional rain chances, although looking light for the most
part. A somewhat more impactful system will have to be monitored for
early-mid next week as a deeper upper low/sfc low pressure system
moves into the central CONUS and then eastward in some fashion.
Couple ensembles hint at non zero CAPE values so that`s what the
we`ll be watching for in the coming days, but really a much too far
look into the future for any sort of elaboration. During this entire
period, daytime high temperatures likely remain in the 60s and 70s
for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Lingering MVFR CIGs, primarily at CIU, this afternoon may continue
right on through tonight with latest trends suggest those lower
clouds bleed into northern lower toward and after sunset. Any
lingering lower ceilings Thursday morning should lift to VFR
through the day. Occasionally gusty west winds this afternoon
diminish overnight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJG
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MJG