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000
AXNT20 KNHC 091557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS...

The 24-hour forecast for the Gulf of Mexico consists of a cold
front along 30N94W 20.5N97W. Expect strong to near gale-force
SE to S winds, and rough seas, from 18N to 30N between 84W and
95W. Expect NW to N winds to the west of the cold front. Expect
frequent gusts to gale-force, starting a few hours later tomorrow
on Wednesday, from the midday hours until Thursday, from 28N to
30N between 88W and 91W. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES...

The current METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of gale-force
winds in the marine zone AGADIR until 10/0600 UTC. Gale-force
winds are in the marine zone TARFAYA until 10/0000 UTC. Rough seas
are from 24N northward from 20W eastward. Please, refer to the
website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. The 24-hour outlook
consists of: the persistence or the threat of N to NE near gale-
force or gale-force winds in the marine zone CANARIAS.

A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 41N12W. A NW-to-SE oriented
inland Africa surface trough is along 29N10W 17N07W. The surface
pressure gradient is comparatively tighter, supporting the gale-
force wind event. Strong NE winds cover the waters that are from
13N northward from 24W eastward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 01S20W. The ITCZ continues to 05S28W and to the
Equator along 43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 10N southward from 52W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning, for midday on Wednesday.

A surface ridge extends from high pressure in the western
Atlantic Ocean, to the Gulf coast states. A NW-to-SE inland Mexico
surface trough is along 29N102W 26N101W 22N95W. An inland
stationary front passes through Texas to SE Mississippi.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are to the north of the line that is from
20N96W 26N90W 27N80W.

Rough seas are in the NW corner of the area. Moderate seas are
nearly everywhere else in the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for
slight seas in the far NE corner of the area, off the coast of the
Florida Big Bend. Fresh to strong SE winds are in much of the
western half of the Gulf, and in the Straits of Florida. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds are in the rest of the eastern half of the
area.

A ridge extends from high pressure in the western Atlantic across
the Gulf coast states. The high will shift further into the
Atlantic through mid week. Fresh to strong SE winds will become SE
to S today through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. This
next cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf early
Wed morning. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to
the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE
of the area Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 19N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
18N70W just to the south of Hispaniola, to 19N80W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 14N to 22N between
60W and 83W.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are between 12N64W 16N69W and
10N80W 15N81W 17N78W; in the Mona Passage; and to the west of the
line that runs from SE Cuba to the easternmost sections of
Honduras. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. Rough seas are:
within 270 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 80W;
between Jamaica and SE Cuba; in the coastal waters of Belize; and
off the coast of the border of Haiti and the SW part of the
Dominican Republic. Moderate seas are in much of the rest of the
Caribbean Sea from 65W off the coast of Venezuela, toward the
coast of the Dominican Republic, and elsewhere westward. An
exception is for slight seas is off the coast of the eastern part
of Honduras. Slight seas are in the remainder of the area that is
in the eastern one-third of the area.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 09/1200 UTC, are: 0.47 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; and 0.01 in
Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure will build across the western Atlantic through Wed,
tightening the pressure gradient across the region. This will
result in fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across
most of the central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at
night off of Colombia through Thu night. The building high
pressure will also support fresh to strong winds in the Windward
Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds
will start to diminish the end of the week as the high pressure
shifts eastward and well NE of the region. Looking ahead, a cold
front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then
stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning, for the METEO-FRANCE marine zones.

A cold front passes through 31N41W 23N50W 19N60W, and into the
northern sections of the Caribbean Sea. Rough seas are to the
north of 31N30W 26N38W 26N51W 31N60W. Strong southerly winds are
within 240 nm to the east of the cold front from 28N northward.
Moderate to fresh westerly winds are to the west of the front from
28N northward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 60 nm on either side of the cold front
from 29N northward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are possible
elsewhere within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the cold front.
The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 09/1200 UTC, are: 0.03 in Bermuda. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N72W. Rough seas are from
24N northward between 60W and 70W. Moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly moderate to some fresh
anticyclonic winds are from 50W westward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 02N to 13N between 40W and 51W.
Fresh NE winds are from 25N southward between 24W and 40W.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward
between 24W and 40W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure will build across the western Atlantic through Wed,
tightening the pressure gradient across the region. This will
result in fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across
most of the central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at
night off of Colombia through the next several nights/early
mornings. The building high pressure will also support fresh to
strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in
the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will start to diminish the end of the
week as the high pressure shifts eastward and well NE of the
region. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the
Yucatan Channel Thu night, then stall and weaken over the NW
Caribbean late Fri.

$$
mt/jl