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000
AXNT20 KNHC 121013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from North Carolina
to the Florida Keys. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted ahead of the frontal boundary. Strong to gale-force
S-SW winds are occurring ahead of the front to 75W and north of
29N. Strong to near gale-force W winds are evident behind the
front to off NE Florida and north of 29N. Seas of 8-13 ft are
present north of 28N between 74W and 79W, with the highest seas
near 31N78W. These conditions will improve this afternoon as the
front moves eastward away from the area. The front will reach
from 31N71W to the central Bahamas tonight, and from near Bermuda
to eastern Cuba by Sat evening. The front will dissipate by Sun,
with conditions improving across the rest of the Atlantic offshore
waters.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong subtropical ridge over the NW
Atlantic will force fresh to near gale-force easterly winds
across the south-central Caribbean during the next several days.
Gale force winds are expected to pulse offshore Colombia on tonight
through Sun night. Seas should peak near 12 ft during late
night/early morning hours of all three nights.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the above GALE WARNINGS.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 01N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N20W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 05N and west of 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front has exited the basin. High pressure is building in
behind the front, bringing tranquil conditions. The weak pressure
gradient across the Gulf of Mexico result in moderate to locally
fresh northerly winds in the eastern Gulf, while moderate or
weaker winds are found in the remainder of the basin. Seas are
6-10ft east of 90W and 4-7 ft west of 90W.

For the forecast, as the cold front continues moving farther from
the basin, conditions will improve over the eastern basin by this
afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.
Strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan in the evening
today and Sat. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds with slight to
moderate seas can be expected through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
Warning off NW Colombia.

A cold front extends from western Cuba to northern Belize. Showers
are likely occurring ahead of the front in the NW Caribbean.
Moderate N winds are noted behind the front with seas to 6 ft.
The rest of the Caribbean Sea is dominated by a 1037 mb high
pressure system located south of Newfoundland. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
NW South America result in strong to near gale-force easterly
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, with gale force winds
occurring off the coast of Colombia. Seas in these waters are
8-12 ft. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are
found in the north- central and NE Caribbean. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted in the
southeastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, gale force winds are ongoing off the coast of
Colombia, which will become fresh to strong by this morning. Fresh
to strong winds are also prevailing over most of the central
Caribbean. Gale force winds are expected to pulse offshore
Colombia at night from Fri night through Sun night. Fresh to
strong winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola will
pulse on Sat night and Sun night. Meanwhile, a cold front
stretching from western Cuba to northern Belize will dissipate
through today. This will bring moderate to locally fresh winds
and moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
Warning off NE Florida.

Aside from the cold front described in the Special Features section,
the remainder of the tropical western Atlantic is dominated by a
strong subtropical ridge centered south of Newfoundland. A
trough stretches from 31N33W to 16N61W. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and surface trough sustain fresh
to strong NE-E winds north of the surface trough to 26N and
W of 40W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present
south of 15N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is moving off the
Florida coast and will continue moving south and east over the
next few days. Gale force southerly winds across the Florida
offshore waters N of 30N will end early this morning. Rough seas
will accompany these winds. Conditions will improve this afternoon
as the front moves eastward away from the Florida offshore
waters. The front will reach from 31N71W to the central Bahamas
tonight, and from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat evening. The
front will dissipate by Sun, with conditions improving across the
rest of the Atlantic offshore waters.


$$
AReinhart