762
FXUS61 KBGM 121724
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
124 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will keep showers around today with very cool
temperatures. Tonight will briefly dry out with cool conditions
and patchy fog. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday,
however the warm front that pushes through will kick off
scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Another upper
level low moves over the region on Tuesday and Wednesday with
more periods of rain possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1040 AM Update...

Upper level low is slowly drifting eastward this morning and is
continuing to produce cloudy condition with showers across the
region. Updated the PoPs over the next few hours and into this
afternoon based on the latest RADAR trends and CAMs. Otherwise,
forecast remains on-track with some clearing expected late in
the day and tonight.

645 AM Update

No significant changes to the near term forecast with this
update. Minor tweaks to PoPs based on the latest radar data and
HRRR. Otherwise, it remains well on track.

430 AM Update

Unsettled weather pattern continues today, as a slow moving upper
level low drifts eastward over the region. The low is currently
centered near Buffalo, and will move east to near New York City by
midday, while opening up and weakening at the same time. As for
sensible weather, this will keep periods of rain and clouds around
this morning. The rain and drizzle looks to linger longest over NE
PA, where it finally dissipates by 1-4 PM this afternoon. Then, the
flow turns more north-northwesterly and a slightly drier air mass
advects into the area. However, minor instability builds over Yates,
Steuben and western Chemung counties this afternoon (250 J/kg
MLCAPE, and LIs to -2) this will allow a few convective showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop in that region...these will be
slow moving, but eventually drifting southeast, before dissipating
around sunset. Highs will be well below average for mid-May, only in
the upper 40s to mid-50s east of I-81, and mid-50s to low 60s west.

Dry weather, under partly cloudy skies is expected tonight under
weak high pressure. Winds may decouple enough for some patchy fog to
form. Cool lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s expected.

A slow moving warm front is then progged to push east over the
region on Monday. Along this front there will be a period of rain
showers in the morning to early afternoon hours; with more coverage
of showers the further north in Central NY on goes. NE PA may only
see a few scattered showers as the front moves through. By
afternoon, the warm front progresses east and north, clearing Oneida
county in the late afternoon or early evening. Winds turn from moist
southerly, to more well mixed southwesterly behind the front.
Temperatures will be warmest over the Finger Lakes and central
southern tier where the front clears earliest in the day. This is
also where instability will build, with up to 750 J/Kg of MLCAPE
possible. This will allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop in
this portion of the forecast area during the late afternoon and move
east-northeast across Central NY heading into the evening hours. SPC
is only indicating general thunder, with no severe threat seen at
this time from these thunderstorms. Outside of the scattered showers
and t`storms it will be partly sunny with  highs ranging from the low
to mid-70s west of interstate 81, with mid-60s to around 70 east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
355 AM Update:

Weak ridging will be sliding east of the area Monday night with
a warm front north of our region. Latest model guidance has
trended a bit drier Monday night with most of the rain shower
activity located to our north and west/closer to the warm front.
Currently maintaining slight chance to low-end chance PoPs for
areas west of I-81 Monday night, but if this drier trend
continues, it is possible the entire area remains dry Monday
night. Lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

A slow-moving frontal boundary will be moving eastward on
Tuesday, which will re-introduce showers to the forecast.
Depending on the progression of this front, it is possible that
much of Tuesday morning may remain mainly dry, especially east
of I-81, before coverage of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms increases during the afternoon. Otherwise it will
be mainly cloudy with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

The upper level low will slowly drift eastward and the
associated frontal boundary will stall over/around our area
Tuesday night through Wednesday, which will keep showers and
some thunderstorms around. Right now, it appears the best chance
for more widespread coverage of showers on Wednesday will be
across areas east of I-81/south of I-88, but this is subject to
change depending on the progression of the frontal boundary.
Otherwise, mainly cloudy skies are again expected, with perhaps
some partial clearing late in the day Wednesday for areas west
of I-81. Highs are expected to be mainly in the 60s.

The upper level low drifts eastward/away from the area Wednesday
night, which will allow for the coverage of showers to diminish.
However, some model guidance keeps this upper low close enough
to have showers linger around a bit longer.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
355 AM Update:

Weak ridging builds in Thursday into Friday, which will allow
for a brief drier period of weather. The one caveat is that the
upper low may remain close enough to the region Thursday for a
few isolated showers. That being said, chances are that Thursday
will be dry with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Unfortunately, this dry period of weather looks to be rather
short-lived as yet another frontal system looks to move through
the region late in the period. However, as is typical this far
out, significant timing differences are present, which creates
uncertainty for Friday`s forecast. Should this next system
approach the area a bit slower, Friday may remain dry, but a
quicker approach would re-introduce a chance for showers.
Confidence in seeing rain showers is higher for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Upper level low pressure system has brought showers and mostly
cloudy conditions to the region today. This has resulted in
predominantly MVFR ceilings. Clouds will scatter out and
ceilings will lift as this system pushes eastward later this
afternoon and this evening. Brief high pressure and drier
conditions are expect this evening and tonight with VFR
conditions likely. There is some uncertainty overnight into
early Monday on fog development. Clouds are expected to increase
again early Monday morning, but if cloud cover overnight can
clear out long enough, then fog may become an issue early
Monday. Confidence is too low at this time to include IFR fog at
any terminal, but ELM and BGM would be most likely areas to see
restrictions from fog early Monday.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers
may bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances
pass through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is
uncertain.

Thursday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MPK