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000
FXUS63 KBIS 140348
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1048 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances next week, especially Monday night and
  Tuesday, with greatest chances (60 to 80 percent) coming to
  south central and into eastern North Dakota.

- Colder temperatures mid to late in the work week with low to
  medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain and snow.

- Expect breezy to windy conditions at times nearly every day
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Clear skies and diminishing winds are settling in for the night.
Look for low temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s tonight.
This evening`s hi-res models indicate perhaps slightly more
coverage for isolated showers tomorrow through tomorrow night.
Somewhat expanded slight pops as a result. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Other than some minor edits to the sky grids to account for the
latest satellite trends, no other updates were needed at this
time. Breezy north northwesterly winds persist, especially
across the northwest and portions of the north central. The
forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

At the upper levels, western and central North Dakota is
currently situated under very gradual northwest flow aloft,
nearly zonal. A weak shortwave embedded within the flow will
continue to move across the region through the afternoon which
has led to some scattered radar echoes across the northern half
of the state. With very dry conditions near the surface, most of
this is likely not reaching the ground but we have seen some
surface observations of light rain associated with the heavier
echoes north of the Highway 2 corridor. Any light rain should
move out by the late afternoon hours.

Mild temperatures are the big story for today with most of
western and central North Dakota already showing temperatures
in the low to mid 70s. Some lower 80s are even likely before the
afternoon is over across portions of the south. A weak surface
front is currently draped over central North Dakota and will
continue to move southeast through the day. This will lead to
some breezy to windy northwest winds behind the front. The
strongest winds will likely be across the northwest where we
could see an hour or two of sustained winds in the 20 to 25 mph
range and some gusts up to 40 mph. Coupled with minimum
afternoon humidity values bottoming out in the mid to upper
teens (percent), we will see a couple hours of near critical
fire weather conditions across the northwest this afternoon.

Today`s cold front will act more as a "cool" front with lows
tonight ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Sunday then looks
like another beautiful and mild day (but just a bit cooler than
today). Highs will range from the mid 60s in the vicinity of the
Turtle Mountains, to the mid to upper 70s southwest. The James
River Valley will see highs in the lower 70s. By Sunday
afternoon and evening, we may see a low chance of rain showers
develop somewhere across the west before moving into central
overnight. Some lingering low to medium rain chances (20 to 40
percent) will continue into Monday morning and afternoon, mainly
across the south and east. An upper low will move from the
Great Basin region into Wyoming by Monday night and into the
central Plains by Tuesday morning. Western and central North
Dakota will kind of be stuck in between this low and a northern
stream trough starting to move in. This will mean increasing
rain and thunderstorm chances Monday night into Tuesday with the
highest chances (~60 to 80 percent) mainly across the central
and east. The best thunderstorm chances will generally be across
the southern half of the state. Looking at NBM surface based
CAPE probabilities, we generally see a 60 to 90 percent chance
for SBCAPE greater than a 100 J/kg along and south of Interstate
94 Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning (highest probabilities
near the South Dakota border). When we increase that threshold
to 500 J/kg, the probabilities decrease quite a bit and max out
around 30 to 50 percent range near the South Dakota border.
Thus, it will not be surprising if we see some widespread
showery convection with some embedded thunder during this time
frame, but severe weather is not anticipated.

A northern stream closed low will then meander from eastern
Alberta Tuesday night, to the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border by
Wednesday night. This pattern will lead to a significant cool
down for the middle and end of next week with continued chances
for precipitation. Monday`s highs will be similar to Sunday
(lower 60s to lower 70s) and then the cooler temperatures move
in Tuesday with highs forecast to range from the lower 50s to
lower 60s. The coldest day of the period for now looks to be
Thursday when we have highs only forecast to range from the mid
30s to lower 40s. Thus, with various low to medium chances of
precipitation Wednesday night through Friday morning, it could
be cold enough for some snow. For now, we are expecting little
to no accumulation. Expect breezy to windy conditions through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the 00z TAF period.
Breezy north northwesterly winds will begin to diminish this
evening, becoming light and variable through the overnight
period as a low center pushes southward across the forecast
area, then veering easterly and strengthening across the west
and south central through Sunday afternoon. Some low chances (10
to 15 percent) for precipitation begin to push in from the west
through Sunday afternoon, becoming more probable and widespread
beyond the end of the 00z TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...Adam