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000
FXUS64 KBMX 162037
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
337 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2024

Morning clouds have finally mixed out which has allowed for a
window of sunshine which should stick around this afternoon.
We`ll warm nicely with highs in the low to mid 80s with passing
mid-high clouds. Winds will remain southerly at 5-10 mph with
low-level ridging parked to our southeast.

Conditions will calm tonight, though clouds will be on the
increase from the west as a weakening front and line of
convection nears the Tennessee Valley. Lows will settle in the
60s. This line of decaying convection is forecast to move into
Central Alabama during the early morning hours, progressing
southeast toward the I-20 corridor by Noon or so. Instability
parameters remain on the marginal side (500-1,000 J/kg SBCAPE) despite
sufficient westerly shear vectors for organized storms. Forcing
is also quite low, with little convergence in the low-levels and
best support aloft well to our north. Thunderstorms remain in the
forecast, though we`re not expecting any meaningful threat for
severe weather due to the lack of overlapping forcing &
instability.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2024


A weakening upper air trof axis will sink southward and become
stationary over north Alabama Wednesday evening. There will likely
be isolated showers or thunderstorms Wednesday evening, dissipating
before midnight. An elevated warm front could bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to north Alabama Thursday afternoon and
evening. There is just enough conditional instability for stronger
storms, but 0-6KM bulk shear is forecast to be less than 30 knots.
Any storm that develops will be discrete, but overall severe
threat looks low. Scattered to numerous showers and a few storms
will linger overnight Thursday as a cold front approaches
northwest Alabama on Friday. Conditions on Friday look similar to
Thursday, so an isolated strong to severe storm not out of the
question. By Saturday morning, the cold front should make it into
far south Alabama. Several upper level impulses will track along
the Gulf Coast over the weekend. The ECMWF model is showing much
more rainfall amounts than the GFS, but decent areal coverage
regardless. The post-frontal air mass will result in mostly
showers north of I-85, with isolated storms across south Alabama.
The rain should clear out Sunday night.


58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2024

Morning IFR conditions have improved with low cigs mixing out
across Central Alabama. A few clouds around 025 remain with upper
cirrus. Winds will remain southerly at 5-10 kts this afternoon,
with gusts ~15 kts. VFR conditions are forecast through much of
the TAF period, though will monitor for patchy FG near TOI,
perhaps MGM after ~09z - I included a TEMPO for TOI.

Clouds will be on the increase from the west after ~12z with a
front nearing the region from the northwest. We`ll see MVFR cig
potential at TCL and perhaps BHM after ~15z with nearby SHRA. It
appears TSRA could impact these terminals closer to ~18z (next
TAF period). Winds will favor southerly to southwesterly at 5-10
kts tomorrow afternoon, ahead of the weakening front.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions expected overnight with max RH values 75-85%
east of I-65 and 85-95% west of I-65. A band of showers and a few
thunderstorms will impact north Alabama on Wednesday, with
forecast rainfall amounts one-quarter to one-half inch. Min RH
values on Wednesday 60-70% along and north of I-20 and 45-55%
south of I-20. Rain chances will continue through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  78  59  85 /  10  50  20  20
Anniston    60  79  60  84 /  10  40  20  20
Birmingham  64  78  62  85 /  10  50  20  20
Tuscaloosa  63  79  63  84 /  10  50  20  20
Calera      62  79  62  83 /   0  40  20  20
Auburn      62  80  63  84 /   0  10  10  10
Montgomery  60  82  63  84 /   0  10  10  10
Troy        59  83  63  84 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...40
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...40