557
FXUS64 KBMX 270805
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
305 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

High pressure remains the predominant weather across the region
with most of the activity develop along the edges of the high and
remaining to our south and west. There will be plenty of clouds,
mainly high clouds with some cumulus during the afternoon, as
abundant moisture is in place. By Sunday afternoon the wedge that
is in place in the east will retreat and the rain will get closer.
Right now the trends keep most of the activity to our west but
very close to the state border with Mississippi. Will continue to
keep the forecast dry but there is a minimal chance for our far
western counties to see a brief shower during the afternoon on
Sunday. Otherwise, dry and warm temperatures with readings in the
upper 70s to mid 80s each day, with lows dropping into the 60s.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

While an upper low lifts slowly northeastward across the Boundary
Waters of Minnesota and Ontario, a secondary shortwave along the
southern end of the trough will move eastward from the ArkLaTex
Monday morning to northern Alabama Monday night. An MCS is
expected to be located over the ArkLaMiss Monday morning, and
will continue to move east-southeastward through the day. It will
encounter a drier low-level air mass as it approaches Alabama and
will also be well ahead of a stalled frontal boundary extending
from the Midwest to the Southern Plains. Therefore some weakening
is expected to occur. Also, with MLCAPE values less than 1000 J/kg
and 0-6km bulk shear only around 25-30 kts, the probability of it
being severe is very low at this time though some gusty winds
will be possible depending on the strength of the cold pool. There
are typical uncertainties regarding the track of the MCS, but in
general expect rain chances to increase in far western Alabama
Monday afternoon and across the northwest half of the area Monday
night in proximity to the shortwave. However, some guidance
suggests a more southerly track that would limit rain chances
further north which will be monitored. Tuesday may be trending
drier depending on the amount of subsidence behind the shortwave.

For the rest of the week, relatively weak and quasi-zonal mid-
level flow will be present southeast of a positively tilted trough
over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. A few weak
convectively enhanced waves in the westerly flow aloft will
provide chances of a few showers and storms at times but with low
predictability this far out. This will predominately be across the
northwest half of the area, while the southeast half should
remain drier with temperatures near 90 degrees in closer proximity
to ridging extending from the Gulf up the East Coast. Rain
chances may begin to increase by the end of the period as moisture
pools ahead of a cold front sagging southeastward, though this
front is trending slower with each model run.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Overall VFR conditions for the period. With the wedge in place
across the east, there is a small chance at seeing some brief MVFR
clouds in at ASN and ANB right around sunrise, so included a tempo
here. There will also be some mid-level cumulus between 4 and 6
kft this afternoon with the heating of the day. Winds will be
southerly and breezy at times with 8 to 12 kts sustained and gusts
up to 18 kts this afternoon.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above
critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with
increasing rain chances across north Alabama Monday afternoon and
Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  60  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    82  61  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  83  64  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  85  64  84  62 /  10   0  10   0
Calera      82  63  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      81  62  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  85  64  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        84  64  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32/Davis
AVIATION...16