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000
FXUS65 KBOU 190603
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1203 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and cloudy with rounds of snow through Saturday morning.

- Best chance of accumulating snow Friday afternoon into Saturday
  morning.

- Drier and warmer early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The low clouds will be here to stay throughout the night tonight
across the plains and foothills. There will continue to be mist
and flurries as well. Roads may become slick and icy especially
in the foothills where there is colder temperatures. Across the
Denver metro, bridges may become very icy by morning so the
morning commute could have more crashes than normal.

Tomorrow, clouds may clear over the plains to the south of I-70.
This may allow for a bit warmer conditions than today but highs
were lowered a couple of degrees in this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Post frontal upslope flow continues which will lock stratus in
across the plain as periods of overrunning associated with passing
disturbances move through westerly flow aloft. Snow bands
redevelop overnight across the front range and spreads eastward
bringing some additional light snow through early Fri morning. A
stronger round of upper lift associated with the next wave in
westerly flow spreads in late Friday through Saturday morning.
This will bring another more widespread snow event to the region,
with HREF probabilities of 3 inches in the 40-60% range across a
large portion of NE CO through early Saturday morning, though
warmth of ground and pavement surfaces may mitigate impacts to
some degree across the lower elevations. Probabilities for 6" or
more really tail back quickly across the lower elevations though
some HREF probs do show an area of 50% probs along front range
mountains. Some light snow continues into Saturday morning before
drying spreads in behind the wave through the day. Stratus may
hang in most of the day across the plains as focus for
precipitation shifts southward. Temperatures will remain below
normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Upper ridge builds in then flattens as the next closed low passes to
the north on Monday. Temperatures rebound back into the 60s to
around 70 across the plains for Sunday and into the 40s and 50s for
the mountain communities.  This wave brings another brief round of
snow Sunday night across the mountains but accumulations stay light.
Monday gets windy and warm again which could bring some near
critical fire weather conditions to portions of the plains.  For now
RH values stay above the 15 percent critical thresholds. A minor
drop in temperatures expected for Tuesday behind another front
which drops through the region Monday night. Post frontal upslope
flow may generate some mountain showers across the region Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Timing of the next system in southwest flow for mid to late week is
still in question among the models/ensembles.  For now it looks like
we enter another dry and windy southwest flow pattern with another
uptick in mountain precipitation late week.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Upper ridge builds in then flattens as the next closed low passes to
the north on Monday. Temperatures rebound back into the 60s to
around 70 across the plains for Sunday and into the 40s and 50s for
the mountain communities.  This wave brings another brief round of
snow Sunday night across the mountains but accumulations stay light.
Monday gets windy and warm again which could bring some near
critical fire weather conditions to portions of the plains.  For now
RH values stay above the 15 percent critical thresholds. A minor
drop in temperatures expected for Tuesday behind another front
which drops through the region Monday night. Post frontal upslope
flow may generate some mountain showers across the region Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Timing of the next system in southwest flow for mid to late week is
still in question among the models/ensembles.  For now it looks like
we enter another dry and windy southwest flow pattern with another
uptick in mountain precipitation late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1203 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Ceiling and weather impacts are expected to continue through the
TAF period.

Current radar shows areas of light drizzle across the terminals
with indications of it lifting northward. Can`t rule out
additional areas of drizzle or even a low chance of light snow
early this morning. Otherwise, BR should stay in place resulting
in visibilities and ceilings in the MVFR category. Later this
morning, soundings show some indication of small improvements in
ceilings into the higher end MVFR range. This isn`t high
confidence at this point as there is also the possibility that
these low ceilings stay socked limiting any improvement.

Another front moves across Colorado in the late afternoon-early
evening timeframe (20-00Z) followed by a push of northeast winds.
Showers develop around the terminals mid to late afternoon with
lowering ceilings. Early evening, rain showers will have changed
to snow. With light snow, conditions drop back into low MVFR to
IFR with lower visiblities and ceilings.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Danielson
SHORT TERM...099
LONG TERM...099
AVIATION...Mensch