Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
348 FNUS75 KBOU 061411 FWSBOU Spot Forecast for Forsythe II Rx - Unit 44...USFS National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 811 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION...Winds will finally be decreasing by Wednesday, but there`s still uncertainty as to whether or not we`ll be decreasing to less than critical burn thresholds. At this time, the deterministic forecast (seen on the fire weather poker) is on the higher end of the potential range of wind gusts. Most likely, gusty winds up to 25-35 mph will be possible off/on in the morning, but then slowly relax through the day as winds aloft decrease. It`s possible (50-60% chance) winds will still gust to 20-25 mph in the afternoon hours, but a 40-50% chance they`ll decrease to less than 20 mph. That all depends on how fast this current windy system exits to the east of us. Thursday will definitely feature lighter winds, but humidities are expected to stay above your local thresholds and only drop to minimums of 40-45%. Scattered showers (mostly light) are also expected to develop in the afternoon. .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of snow showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200. CWR.................24 percent. Chance of pcpn......50 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 46. Min humidity........32 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 17 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL until 1000. 7300 ft AGL after 1200. Transport winds.....West 20 to 28 mph until 1000, then 32 to 38 mph until 1200, then 36 to 46 mph until 1600, then 31 to 36 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800, then good until 1000, then very good until 1100, then excellent. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........67 67 67 64 65 72 73 72 73 72 70 70 Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 40 40 40 50 50 50 50 50 50 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 Temp............32 35 38 41 44 45 46 46 46 46 46 45 RH..............58 54 50 42 39 38 37 35 35 32 32 32 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..17 18 18 20 22 23 24 24 23 22 22 22 20 FT wind gust.22 22 25 29 33 38 41 41 41 39 38 37 Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.9 2.8 3.8 5.1 6.5 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.6 6.7 5.8 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.20 22 25 28 32 38 43 41 39 38 35 32 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 37 61 91 145 212 290 277 264 251 203 161 SmokeDispersion.P P G G VG E E E E E E E .TUESDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of snow showers until 2400. CWR.................6 percent. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 24. Max humidity........55 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Windy. West winds 22 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after 0400. Transport winds.....West 31 to 38 mph until 2000. 30 to 35 mph after 0300. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1900, then very good until 2000, then fair until 2100, then poor until 2400, then fair until 0200, then poor. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........51 51 51 51 51 51 28 27 25 24 24 24 Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type....SW SW SW SW SW SW Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.............3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............43 40 36 33 31 30 29 28 26 25 24 24 RH..............35 39 45 49 51 51 51 50 55 55 54 54 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..22 22 22 22 22 22 23 25 28 30 30 29 20 FT wind gust.33 33 35 35 35 33 35 38 41 45 45 44 Mix hgt (kft)...5.8 3.8 2.2 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.9 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.38 31 26 23 23 24 26 29 32 33 33 31 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..190 105 50 23 20 30 43 43 39 33 27 23 SmokeDispersion.E VG F P P P F F P P P P .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent) until 0800, then partly cloudy (30-40 percent). CWR.................4 percent. Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 46. Min humidity........29 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 16 to 26 mph until 1100, then 12 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the morning, and then up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 20 to 29 mph until 1400, then 15 to 20 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800, then fair until 1000, then good until 1600, then very good until 1700, then good. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........24 25 27 28 31 33 36 35 35 34 40 45 Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH Weather type.... SW SW SW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Temp............25 26 29 31 34 37 40 43 45 46 46 45 RH..............52 50 44 43 39 37 34 32 31 29 29 31 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W NW 20 FT wind spd..28 25 24 21 18 18 16 14 14 14 13 13 20 FT wind gust.38 36 32 30 28 26 24 23 22 22 22 22 Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.4 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.7 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W NW Transp wind spd.29 26 24 23 22 22 21 20 18 17 17 16 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..25 33 44 55 65 74 84 92 98 99 101 97 SmokeDispersion.P P F F G G G G G G VG G .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY... Mostly cloudy with showers, snow showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY... Mostly cloudy with chance of showers, thunderstorms and snow showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. East winds around 9 mph. .SATURDAY... Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 50s. Northwest winds around 9 mph. $$ Forecaster...Barjenbruch Requested by...Luke Finn Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412828.6/BOU .DELDT 05/06/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL luke.finn@usda.gov