Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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319 FXUS64 KBRO 020606 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 106 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 The short-term forecast period will continue to feature a steady state pattern, that being warm, humid and rain-free with continued onshore flow. Morning and nighttime hours will continue to see overcast skies while afternoon hours will see some breaks in the overcast. Daytime highs will be slightly warmer than normal while nighttime lows will be warmer than normal. For tonight and Thursday night, overnight lows are progged to be in the mid to upper 70s (some +4-8F degrees above average). The high temperature on Thursday is expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s (some +2-3F degrees above average) across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Shortwave energy, upslope flow and strong to extreme instability will produce isolated to scattered convection initially across the Sierra Madre in the late afternoon and evening on both Fri and Sat. Most of this convection is expected to wane significantly before reaching the Rio Grande Plains or Upper Valley given the increasing cap strength and lack of forcing across our CWA. For now, will maintain slight chance POPs for just Zapata county for these Fri and Sat time periods. Otherwise, strong capping within the 915-630 mb layer will keep our convective chances close to nil through most of, if not all, of the extended forecast period. The main weather story will be the building heat next week. A broad strengthening mid/upper ridge axis will continue to expand its grip and influence on our CWA next week. The result will be increasing subsidence, even drier conditions, and rising temps. Diminishing cloud cover will further add to the building heat. H8 temps by Wed will be 25-28 degrees Celsius! Widespread daytime highs in the 90s through the weekend will gradually be replaced with 100s during the Mon-Wed timeframe across inland areas, especially west of I-69C. An expanding Major HeatRisk area by Tue and Wed will prevail across areas west of I-69C. As for Heat Indices, we could be looking at marginal heat advisories for this same geographical area by Wed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Moderate to breezy winds will diminish to light levels around sunset Thursday. Mostly cloudy skies and no rainfall are also likely. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Tonight through Thursday night...Moderate winds may yield periodic Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions. Conditions are expected to range between a moderate chop to choppy at the bay. Meanwhile, moderate seas are expected to continue with wave heights between 4-6 feet. Elevated seas will result in a MODERATE RISK for rip currents at the local beaches through Thursday. Friday through Wednesday...Moderate to occasionally strong southeast winds will prevail through most of the period across the coastal waters. Small craft caution conditions will be the dominant hazard. However, at times in the afternoon and evening, there will be marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters given the enhanced pressure and thermal gradients early next week. The rip current risk will remain moderate to occasionally high throughout the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 91 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 78 95 76 94 / 0 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 96 76 94 / 0 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 82 76 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 74 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$