Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 250714
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
314 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Quebec will assure that most areas will
experience moonlit skies overnight with another day of full sunshine
on Monday. The start of the new work week will also mark a period of
notably warmer weather. Temperatures will soar into the 50s for many
areas on Monday with the mercury in the 50s and lower 60s for
Tuesday. A slow moving cold front will then lead to the likelihood
of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moonlit skies will dominate our weather for the remainder of the
overnight, as a large area of high pressure will drift across Quebec
to the Saint Lawrence Valley. While it will not be quite as cold as
last night, the mercury will still bottom out WELL BELOW where it
should be for this time of year. This will especially be the case
across eastern portions of our region where lows will dip down into
the teens for the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region, with
single digits Tug Hill/western Dacks. An increasing southeasterly
breeze will likely keep most areas from the Genesee Valley westward
in the 20s through the remainder of the overnight.

Monday is guaranteed to be a warmer day throughout the region. The
area of Canadian high pressure will drift to extreme eastern Quebec
where its clockwise circulation will direct notably milder into our
area. H85 temps will be some 10 to 15 degrees C higher than those
from today with readings around 6c supporting afternoon max temps of
50 to 55 F for the vast majority of the region. Unfortunately, a
persistent and rather staunch inversion around 3kft will prevent
full mixing or else we would be even warmer.

While Monday night will certainly be precipitation free, it will
become quite windy for some areas. A 50 knot low level jet
sandwiched between the aforementioned surface high and a deepening
storm system over the upper Mississippi Valley will impinge upon our
region. The bulk of these winds within the warm advective pattern
will remain trapped aloft by the previously discussed inversion, but
in the typical downslope areas, the south to southeast flow could
prove to be an issue. The biggest risk for stronger winds will be
found between Lake Erie and the Chautauqua Ridge where 45-50 mph
wind gusts will be possible. If guidance continues to advertise
winds of this magnitude, a Wind Advisory may eventually be needed
for these areas. A lesser threat will be found across the remaining
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and on the north facing
slopes of the Tug Hill where gusts up to 35-40 mph will be possible.
Funneling down the Black River valley is another area worth keeping
an eye on. Will continue a mention for the wind potential in the HWO
for the areas mentioned. Otherwise, it won`t be nearly as cold
Monday night, with lows ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s east
of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 30s across most of western NY.
However, the southeasterly downslope flow may keep low temperatures
in the low 40s locally northwest of the Chautauqua Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level short wave will advance toward the region from the upper
Great Lakes Tuesday, as the amplified ridge over the east coast
very slowly moves eastward. The day starts out dry, but the
strength of the low level inflow will be efficient in
transporting a deep plume of moisture into western New York by
afternoon, supporting an increase risk for showers west of the
Finger Lakes. Continued warm advection will send temperatures
well into the 50s, with 60s possible along the lake plains.

Associated cold front held upstream during the day Tuesday will
move into the region later Tuesday night, supporting additional
chances of showers.

Deep trough to our west will slowly creep east with showers
decreasing in coverage Wednesday as a mid level dry slot works
in from the west. The more concentrated area of showers will
be from the Genesee Valley east and then across the North
Country. It will remain mild ahead of the front with
temperatures peaking in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with the warmest
readings east of the Genesee Valley.

Drier weather will gradually return areawide Wednesday night
but it will also turn progressively cooler behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Thursday the midweek system will be largely to our east...with
perhaps a few leftover showers hanging on across the North Country.
Otherwise high pressure and cooler/drier air will gradually build
across the region Thursday through Friday night and offer a period
of fair dry weather. Temperatures will be right around normal for
the end of March...with daily highs in the mid to upper 40s and
nightly lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

After that the medium range guidance packages diverge considerably
for next weekend...with the GFS much more aggressive at bringing a
mid-level trough and surface low across the Great Lakes compared to
the other guidance...which either has a much weaker/more suppressed
system or none at all...with the GEM/ECMWF largely keeping Canadian
high pressure dominant across our region. Given these differences
will lean more heavily toward continuity and a blended approach
for now...which favors largely dry weather and continued seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control as it slowly drifts east across
Quebec through Monday night with Widespread VFR conditions through
the entire 06Z TAF cycle.

Over time, a tightening surface pressure gradient will bring a
gradually increasing southeasterly flow in across western and
northcentral NY. At the same time, winds off the deck will also
progressively ramp up, bringing more frequent gusts later in the TAF
period. Wind gusts across most areas will remain below 20 knots
through Monday afternoon and evening. Winds off deck will become
strong enough around 2kft to bring the possibility for wind shear
conditions late in the TAF period for KBUF/KIAG/KROC. A stout
inversion just off the deck will make it difficult for these winds
aloft to mix down to the surface. If better mixing can occur (i.e.
gustier surface winds), then wind shear may not be an issue, however
higher gusts would be realized at the surface instead.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR but with the chance of showers far west late.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR CIGS with showers likely.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast winds will be in place for tonight and
Monday, although winds will freshen across Lake Ontario. Given that
the flow will be mainly offshore, the choppiest conditions will be
found in Canadian waters. However, with more of an easterly
component to the wind found across central and western Lake Ontario,
near Small Craft conditions will be possible by Monday from near
Sodus Bay westward.

Flow will remain mainly offshore through mid week, however winds
(possibly waves at times) may be near Small Craft Advisory
thresholds on both Lakes through this period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...AR/TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/RSH


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