Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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281 FXUS61 KBUF 111338 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 938 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Don`t let this mornings sunshine fool you...as weak low pressure and its associated cold front will push through the region this afternoon and tonight with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Many areas will pick up a quarter to a half inch of rain in the process. While some showers will linger into Sunday... mainly east of the Genesee valley...conditions during the second half of the weekend will gradually improve. Warmer weather will then accompany another round of widespread showers later MOnday and Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... It will be deceiving pleasant across the western counties this morning...as a progressive shortwave ridge will exit to our east. Conditions will certainly deteriorate this afternoon though...as a robust shortwave and attendant sfc low will dive southeast across the Upper Great Lakes. A swath of deep moisture ahead of this system will push across the western counties during the afternoon...then across the Eastern Lake Ontario region late in the day and tonight. The resulting lift supplied by moderate hgt falls...low level convergence and being in the proximity of the left front quad of a nominal 90kt H25 jet with this scenario will prompt a renewal in shower activity as the day matures. There could even be a thunderstorm over the western counties. Showery weather will then linger through much of tonight...as the core of a H5 low with its -24c temps will pass directly across our region. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Shower activity will linger into Sunday morning as a mid-level low crosses the region. Showers will diminish from west to east as the mid-level vacates the region Sunday afternoon/evening. A cooler airmass will linger across the region will afternoon highs only reaching the lower 60s, with upper 50s across higher terrain. Dry weather returns Sunday night as shortwave ridging builds in behind the departing mid-level low. Warmer conditions develop Monday ahead of an approaching cold front with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s within the warm sector. The nearing cold front will increase chances for showers and a few thunderstorms as forcing and diurnal instability increase. Showers and thunderstorms chances will continue Monday night as the frontal boundary slowly pushes through the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A closed mid-level low centered over the Hudson Bay Tuesday morning will gradually rotate eastward into Wednesday. Meanwhile, ridging to the west across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Tuesday night will build across the remainder of the Great Lakes into Friday morning before the next trough dives southeast across the Central Plains Friday. Overall, with the mid-level closed low to the north of the area Tuesday, its associated surface low over Quebec will support a cold front to finish pushing southeast across the area Tuesday, supporting widespread rain and a few rumbles of thunder to pass across the area. Chances for showers will then continue across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday due to the troughing overhead. As the aforementioned mid-level ridging pushes east across the Great Lakes, associated surface high pressure will also move into the eastern Great Lakes, resulting in a period of dry weather Wednesday night thorugh much of Thursday. The next chance for showers will return Thursday night through Friday as warm front approaches the area. Expect a gradual warming trend throughout much of next week, with subtle warming each day. By the end of the week the temperatures will have rebounded to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR weather will be in place thorugh at least early this afternoon. Weak low pressure and its attendant cold front will then approach the region during the course of the afternoon. Regional radars show an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this pending system across Lower Michigan this morning. This activity will move into western NY this afternoon. Confidence is low to add TS into the TAF due to uncertainty in coverage. Additional showers will develop across north central NY ahead of the front. VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers move into western NY this afternoon. Widespread low-end VFR/MVFR conditions are likely with IFR conditions across the higher terrain including KJHW through tonight. VFR conditions will likely remain at KART today with flight conditions becoming MVFR late Saturday evening. Outlook... Saturday night...MVFR cigs with showers gradually diminishing in coverage. Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS with scattered showers. Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for showers and possible thunderstorms. Wednesday...Improving conditons with precipitation exiting. && .MARINE... Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will be the rule through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...HSK/RSH MARINE...JM/TMA