270
FXUS62 KCAE 271726
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
126 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will be over the region through Monday along
with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a warming trend. A weak
front is expected to bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Thursday, mainly northern and
eastern areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Easterly flow today will allow shallow moisture to move into
central SC and the CSRA of GA. Expect mostly cloudy skies with
high clouds streaming over the ridge aloft and some cumulus
development. Isolated showers have developed in the Lowcountry
and should move into the eastern/southern Midlands this
afternoon. Very limited instability coupled with an inversion
around 10 kft and some drier air in the mid levels will very
likely prevent thunderstorm development. However the isolated
showers could give some locations a 0.01" of rainfall. With loss
of heating this evening any showers should dissipate with some
clearing possible overnight. High temperatures this afternoon
will be in the upper 70s to around 80 with low tonight in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U.S. early next week
which allows temperatures to warm to slightly above normal levels.
A weak shortwave trough moves over the ridge axis on Tuesday or
Tuesday Night and may bring a slight chance of showers or
thunderstorms, especially to the Northern and Western Midlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Above normal H5 heights are likely through the end of next week with
a high probability of above normal temperatures. The models and
ensembles depict an upper level trough moving over or
flattening a ridge axis across the region with a chance of
showers and/or thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Expect VFR ceilings across the terminals through the day with
SE winds from 5 to 10 kts. Although moisture is shallow, a
couple of showers will develop this afternoon. Thunderstorms are
very unlikely given the mid-level dry air, limited instability
and a capping inversion. Showers are most likely at OGB, but all
showers should dissipate in the evening with loss of heating.
Shallow moisture through onshore flow could lead to fog/stratus
tonight but confidence is low. Winds pick back up out of the SSW
on Sunday with speeds from 5 to 10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in early
morning fog or stratus each morning. Slight chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday onward.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$