816
FXUS62 KCAE 040614
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
214 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture and shortwave energy will lead to active
weather for the weekend through early next week with showers
and thunderstorms likely. For the remainder of next week, expect
well above normal temperatures and at least a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak shortwave trough is moving through the Southeast this
morning leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms. A second,
stronger, shortwave will move into the forecast area this
afternoon. With atmospheric moisture well above normal values,
we expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop leading
to widespread rain during the afternoon. Weak, deep layer shear
points to pulse type convection and makes organized
thunderstorms unlikely. Mean sbCAPE values from the HREF are
around 1000 J/kg, consistent to SREF values from the previous
day`s forecast. This points to enough instability for scattered
thunderstorms but potentially too little for much of a severe
threat, particularly considering the lack of dry air available for
evaporational cooling. The biggest threat will be localized
heavy rain if it occurs in urban or other flood prone areas.
Daytime heating will be hampered by overcast or mostly cloudy
skies and rainfall. This will keeps afternoon temps in the 70s
to low 80s.

Expect convective activity to diminish in the late evening as
the shortwave energy lifts out of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be mild overnight with lows in the 60s.
Abundant low-level moisture should lead to fog or low stratus
over the region early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The axis of an upper trough is expected to continue sliding
eastward, putting us in a southwest flow aloft regime for the
next couple of days. A series of embedded shortwaves are
forecast to move over the region. At the surface, high pressure
off the coast remains generally in place, allowing for southeast
surface winds across the forecast area. As a result of this
combination, PWATs are expected to increase to 1.6-1.7 inches,
which is near the climatological top of moisture for this time
of year. With this amount of moisture available, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to spread across the area
Sunday, with peak coverage in the afternoon. With a lack of low
level forcing mechanism, most of the activity is likely to be
driven by the passing shortwaves. With the ridging aloft,
instability and shear are limited, especially shear. Therefore,
severe thunderstorms are not really expected.

With the widespread cloud cover and scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity, daytime temperatures are forecast to be
closer to average for this time of year compared to the past
couple of days. The increased moisture is expected to keep
temperatures several degrees above average each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A persistent pattern of broad ridging, with passing shortwaves
over the Southeast is expected to bring a continued summer-like
pattern to the region. This should lead to nearly daily shower
and thunderstorm chances through midweek, but coverage is
anticipated to steadily decline after Monday. Temperatures are
also expected to gradually increase due to the stagnant pattern
aloft, with highs mid to late week in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions or thunderstorms likely for much of the TAF
period.

Abundant atmospheric moisture will lead to low stratus and/or
reduced visibilities this morning, and promote numerous showers
and thunderstorms today. Expect IFR/MVFR ceilings for portions
of the morning with rainfall chances, and associated
restrictions, becoming increasingly likely after 15Z. Periods of
reduced visibility from rainfall and thunderstorms should be
expected at all TAF sites today. However confidence in the exact
timing for each site is too low for TS to be included in the
TAFs at the moment.

Expect convective activity to diminish in the late evening.
However low level moisture will remain high which should lead to
stratus and fog development again, with restrictions
potentially extending to the end of the 24 hr TAF forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Fog or stratus possible through at least Monday with abundant
low level moisture in place. Convection also likely for Sunday
and Monday with restrictions and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$