825
FXUS61 KCAR 021007
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
607 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will track through the state then into the Gulf of
Maine today. High pressure will build over the area Friday into
Saturday. A weak trough of low pressure will approach on Sunday then
slide across the area Sunday night. High pressure will build south
of the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:06 AM Update: Observations and web cameras early this morning
indicate patchy dense fog along the coast. Satellite pictures
show clouds continuing to increase from the west early this
morning with at least partial sunshine in Aroostook County south
into much of Washington County. Expect that clouds will
increase across eastern portions of the FA this morning with
rain to overspread much of the area from northern Somerset
County down to the Central Highlands and southeast into Hancock
County. Rain chances diminish significantly to the north of
Clayton Lake and Presque Isle today. Made some minor adjustments
based on the latest satellite pictures, observations, radar,
and web cameras.

Previous discussion:
A weak and elongated area of surface low pressure extends from
southern Quebec and into northern VT early this morning. The surface
low is expected to be in the vicinity of Cape Cod this
afternoon, and fairly quickly pull away from the southern New
England coast this evening. A mid level low will cross southern
Maine early this evening and also quickly pull away from the
coast tonight. A surface ridge will begin to build down into
Maine tonight. An area of rain will overspread the Central
Highlands and into Hancock County this morning, and taper to
showers and end this evening. Little/no rain expected north of
the Katahdin Region, and it looks like most of the rain will
also remain west of Washington County. Highs today will be
coolest where there is the densest cloud cover and rain from the
Central Highlands to southern Hancock County where highs will
only be around 50F. Milder to the north where areas north of
Houlton will likely reach the low 60s. Clouds will likely hold
in tonight with a light northeast flow and lows will mostly be
within a few degrees of 40F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure will build over the area on Friday. However, we
will be on the edge of some moisture to our east wrapping back from
an upper low south of Nova Scotia. This will bring a partly to
mostly cloudy and seasonable day with inland highs in the mid to
upper 50s across the area. A thin ridge of high pressure will remain
over the area Friday night. The upper low to our southeast will be
moving away to the east. However, some moisture ahead of a weak
occlusion will begin to stray into the area bringing a partly to
mostly cloudy night. Weak high pressure will be nearby to our
northeast on Saturday as a bit of moisture continues to stray into
the area from the occlusion to our west. This will bring a partly to
mostly cloudy sky on Saturday. However, any showers should remain to
our west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure and upper ridging will continue to slide to
our east on Sunday. A corridor of moisture supported by lift out
ahead of an upper trough lifting through the Great Lakes, and
surface convergence associated with an approaching occlusion, will
continue to very slowly approach Saturday night into Sunday. A few
showers may begin to move into the area Sunday afternoon as the
occlusion pushes in. However, both the surface occlusion and the
upper trough look rather weak and there are currently no signs of
any well organized precipitation. Scattered showers may last into
Sunday evening across most of the area, with scattered to isolated
showers over the north on Monday as the occlusion pushes east and a
weak upper trough remains north of the region.

Weak high pressure will return on Tuesday and last into Tuesday
night although some thin moisture will linger beneath an upper
trough centered well to our north. This will bring partial
cloudiness Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Our focus on Wednesday will turn to a new trough of low pressure and
surface occlusion pushing east from the Great Lakes region. The
upper trough is currently looking a bit disorganized with one low
just north of the Great Lakes and another low in the upper plains.
However, this one looks like it may carry a bit more moisture into
the area than the trough coming through over the weekend, bringing a
chance of showers late Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures through
early next week should be near normal, to perhaps a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at the Aroostook terminals today with MVFR
ceilings tonight. Chance for MVFR ceilings to move into KHUL
at some point later today. IFR to MVFR at the Downeast
terminals today with MVFR tonight. E/SE wind 5 to 10 knots
becoming N/NE tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...VFR. Light NNE wind

Friday night...VFR. Light NE wind.

Saturday...VFR Light SE wind.

Saturday night...VFR, possibly dropping to MVFR late. Light SE wind.

Sunday...MVFR, possibly dropping to IFR late. S wind.

Sunday night...MVFR. S wind.

Monday...VFR. SW wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain well below small craft
advisory levels through tonight. Patchy fog at times today.

SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas are expected to be below SCA through the coming
weekend and early next week. Some humid air over the waters early
next week may produce some patchy fog or light mist.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...CB/Bloomer
Marine...CB/Bloomer