599
FXUS61 KCAR 291401
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1001 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Tuesday. Low pressure tracks
south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday. High pressure returns
Thursday followed by another approaching low from the west on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1001 AM Update... Gusty winds continue this morning with gusts
25 to 30 mph across most of the forecast area. The 12z KCAR
sounding shows mixing already up to around 920mb, and a steep
inversion above that up through around 750mb. This inversion
will continue to erode through the day as high pressure builds
in, and this will continue to mix winds of around 30 kts aloft
down towards the surface. Model guidance suggests clouds will
clear out through the entire region by late this afternoon,
though with such a steep inversion in NE Aroostook, there could
be some lingering cloud cover north of the I-95 corridor up into
the St. John Valley through the afternoon. Max temperatures
were raised through the coastal Downeast region with this update
based on current observations and trends and downsloping flow.

Previous Discussion:
A strong Canadian high pressure will ridge down across the area
from Quebec province with dry weather conditions today. Deep
layered northerly flow is expected with gusts as high as 25 to
30 mph at times. Expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies this
morning to give way to mainly sunny conditions by afternoon.
Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 50s across the
north and near 60 for the Bangor region and Downeast. High
pressure to our north will result in mainly clear skies this
evening, followed by some increasing high level clouds late.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s to around 30 north
and mid 30s for the Bangor region and Downeast areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
By Tuesday morning weak sfc ridge axis will be losing it/s grip on
the region with upr trof approaching from the OH/TN Valley area.
Enough dry air should be able to hold showers off during the day on
Tuesday, if not keeping them to our west into Tuesday evening. By
06z Wed, sfc low will have developed in the vicinity of the NY Bight
into srn New England and will be moving into the Atlantic overnight.
However, as it does so and inverted trof likely sets up twd the area
with H8-H7 theta-e convergence developing Tuesday night in H8 warm
advection. Have bumped pops further north around 06z Tuesday too
allow for slgt chc of showers as far north as all but northern
Aroostook. Measurable rainfall likely to be only a few hundredths of
an inch to the north of Bangor on Tuesday night.

May see some lingering showers Wednesday morning as low pulls into
the open Atlantic with skies clearing across the north. Due to cloud
cover and showers, warmest temps can be found acrs the north and
east with highs topping out near 60 degrees. Brief s/wv ridging will
take hold of the area Wednesday night ahead of next upr low dropping
twd the area by the start of the extended.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday morning will start out with upr ridge axis over the
southeast U.S. with large upper low over the Prairie Provinces of
Canada into the northern Plains. Our region will see upr s/wv
approaching from the west with differences in timing and strength of
the wave. Cannot rule out showers falling over the region but still
not confident on when that may be. Most likely timeframe looks to be
Thursday afternoon and evening but significant uncertainty still
remains. Good news that this will likely be a fairly light rainfall
at this point.

As wave drops south of the region Thursday night it should leave dry
weather in it/s wake. Have removed pops from Friday, however
uncertainty in the extent of potential blocking setting up. This may
keep showers backing in fm the Maritimes but ensembles building upr
ridge in quick enuf to prevent this fm occurring. By late Friday
night/Saturday morning occluded front will be approaching the area
bringing showers to the area for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR ceilings expected at the Aroostook county
terminals this morning, then becoming VFR this afternoon
through tonight. VFR expected for KBGR/KBHB through tonight. N
to NW wind 10 to 20 kt with G25kt through this afternoon, then 5
to 10 kt tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday...VFR. N 5-15kts, gusting to 20kts early.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible for Downeast
terminals and HUL in rain showers. Winds light N for Aroostook
terminals and lgt/vrb over Downeast.

Wednesday night...VFR. Light ENE over Aroostook terminals and
lgt/vrb for BGR and BHB.

Thursday-Thursday night...Mainly VFR with possible MVFR in cigs
and light rain showers north to south late Thursday afternoon.
Light E shift NE around 5kts Friday morning.

Friday...Mainly VFR. NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA levels through tonight.
Seas generally around 2 ft today and 2 to 3 ft tonight.

SHORT TERM: Cannot rule out marginal winds gusts over the outer
waters early Tuesday morning bur remainder of the period will
see conditions below small craft levels.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...AStrauser/TWD/Buster
Marine...AStrauser/TWD/Buster