951
FXUS63 KDDC 171951
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
251 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong warming trend is expected through the weekend, with many
locations warming well into the 90s Sunday afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and east of US 283
Sunday afternoon. Some storms may be severe with large hail.

- A cold front is expected to provide cooler air Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through tomorrow
afternoon. Lee troughing across eastern Colorado will help bring
southerly winds to western Kansas through tomorrow morning. A weak
frontal boundary will then slide through a majority of the area
tomorrow, then advect northward tomorrow afternoon. Winds behind
this frontal boundary will generally be from a northerly
direction. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
our northern zones tomorrow night, otherwise expect an increase
in cloudiness. Above normal temperatures are expected through
the short term with lows tonight ranging from the low 50s across
west central Kansas with mid to upper 50s elsewhere. 850
temperatures ranging from the upper teens to low 20s tomorrow
afternoon should support highs reaching into the upper 80s to
low 90s. Short term ensemble models show a 30-70 percent chance
of temperatures above 92 degrees south of a line from Great Bend
to Elkhart. Lows tomorrow night are expected to range from the
low 50s across west central Kansas to low 60s across south
central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An upper level shortwave is expected to move out of the Four Corners
region Sunday morning and into the area Sunday afternoon/evening. A
strong dryline is expected to develop along the US 283 corridor
Sunday afternoon, with strong instability east of the boundary.
Dewpoints well into the 60s and CAPE > 3,000 J/kg are expected in
the warm sector east of the dryline. Ensembles suggest convective
initiation along the dryline around 4-5 pm, in an environment of
instability and shear clearly supportive of supercells. Strong
consensus that any severe threat will be focused on the northeast
zones of the DDC CWA. Even though trough timing with the diurnal
heating cycle currently looks favorable, initiation is far from
certain with such a strong EML spreading over SW KS at 700 mb.
Sunday also looks to be the warmest day of the long term forecast
with highs ranging from the upper 80s north to mid to upper 90s
along the KS/OK border.

A cold front is then expected to move through the area Monday.
A few isolated storms will be possible across our northern
zones, otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. The remainder
of the forecast looks dry as shortwaves move well north of the
area. As for temperatures, Highs Monday look to range from the
low 80s along the I-70 corridor where the cold front and
cloudiness will keep temps down to upper 90s along the KS/OK
border where the cold front is not expected to move through
until late. Highs then decrease into the 70s to mid 80s Tuesday
and Wednesday before rebounding into the 80s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be from a southerly direction.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42