Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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639 FXUS63 KDLH 011131 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 631 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms over the area early this morning to gradually lift northeast out of the area by mid day. - Another series of rainy systems are expected Thursday into Friday and again Friday night into Saturday. - Temperatures gradually warm up through this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are moving across the area this morning, driven by a potent shortwave that is sliding northeast across the area this morning. This wave has brought a broad area of much needed rainfall, with most locations so far reporting between a quarter and a half inch of rainfall, though there are a few higher reports where we had some thunder which produced locally heavier rainfall amounts with values approaching three quarters of an inch. This system to continue pushing northeast today, with the southwestern edge of the precipitation currently approximately along Hwy 2, which should push across the US/Canada border about mid-late morning. There has been a lot of stratus on the southwest flank of this system, so while the rainfall will end, many areas may not get any sunshine until late in the afternoon. Temperatures will be warmest for areas that get sunshine the longest, with low 60s across our south, but only around 50 for the tip of the Arrowhead. We have a brief break in precipitation this afternoon and evening, only for another wave of precipitation to move across the area late tonight and Thursday, this time driven by an inverted surface trough and another strong shortwave. This should bring us another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rainfall, with the greatest amounts over northwest Wisconsin, where we get enough instability for some convective elements and rumbles of thunder. Thursday to be another chilly blustery day with highs down in the mid 40s to mid 50s. We will have wrap- around shower activity on Friday, but this will be in the cold air advection, steep low level lapse rates section of this particular system, and do not expect anything very robust out of it. In fact, there should be enough sunshine for highs to rise into the upper 50s and 60s. Saturday will be similar, with enough cold air aloft to perhaps get some more vigorous convection going. It will definetely be cooler Saturday than Friday, only to warm up again on Sunday. For now, it appears it should be dry on Sunday, with temperatures warming into the 60s for much of the area. Early next week it appears we will have another fairly potent spring storm system that moves across the central CONUS for the first half of the work week. The operational models are keeping Monday mostly dry, though the ensembles are showing some faster members that push precipitation in here earlier, so we have some low confidence pops in for Monday. I would not be surprised to see these disappear here in the next few days. Beyond this, it is hard to make any additional changes with confidence, as the operational models are showing an increasing spread in the timing and strength of ths system, and ensembles backing that up. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A low pressure system sliding northeast across the area this morning has brought an area of predominantly MVFR cielings with a smaller area of IFR ceilings in rain, reducing visibilities to MVFR at times. The lowest conditions are expected between issuance and 18z, followed by a gradual improvement. Visibilities will improve first, with these returning to VFR by 16z. The cielings will take longer, but also returning VFR by approximately 23z. Winds early this morning are varied with the low overhead, but as it moves off to the northeast today, winds will become westerly and then increase for a few hours this afternoon, then decrease again after 00z. Fog is possible at a few terminals after 03z tonight, but confidence is low at this point and have only included it at the most likely sites. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Strong gusty northeast winds this morning are expected to gradually diminish through the day today as they back to the northwest by afternoon. Waves have been modeled at over 4 feet for most of the nearshore waters through at least mid morning, but should also be on a decreasing trend. These west to northwest winds to diminish this evening to less than 15 knots over the lake. We will get another round of strong and gusty northeast winds that begin on Thursday, with the strongest winds Thursday evening then diminishing and then this time veering into the southwest by Friday morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>145. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146- 147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...LE MARINE...LE