Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
292 FNUS73 KDLH 101230 FWSDLH Spot Forecast for Lenawax...USFS National Weather Service Duluth MN 730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 10. If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653. .DISCUSSION... There is a 30% chance of very light and localized rain showers moving through the fire from 1100 to 1400 LT today just ahead of a cold front moving southeast across the Northland today. After a two to three hour break, scattered thunderstorms may (40% chance) move near the fire site in the late afternoon and early evening hours today. Isolated strong thunderstorms with localized erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail possible in the strongest storms. Localized rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.25" are likely with any showers or storms, but the scattered nature of the rain could lead to areas seeing less than a tenth of an inch. Winds start out southwesterly from 5 to 8 mph ahead of the front during the morning, but quickly shift westerly and increase in speed by early afternoon, and then further shift northwesterly in the mid- to late afternoon with 20 ft winds increasing to around 15-18 mph. Minimum RH in the afternoon drops to 45-50 percent, but showers/storms could lead to localized increases in humidity if they move overhead. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the morning, then rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................1 until 1300, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 62. Min humidity........48 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then shifting to the northwest 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest 13 to 21 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4200-13500 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (66700-80200 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky cover.......MCR PC PC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 30 40 50 60 50 40 40 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 Temp............42 47 53 55 56 57 58 60 58 58 RH..............62 56 48 49 49 51 51 49 53 53 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW 20 FT wind spd..2 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 20 FT wind gust.11 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.4 2.0 2.2 1.7 2.1 2.5 4.5 4.4 3.9 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW Transp wind spd.8 12 15 15 14 14 13 21 20 20 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/10004 14 25 28 20 26 28 80 74 67 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight chance of rain showers late in the evening. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................3 until 2100, then 2 until 2200, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 39. Max humidity........92 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (7700-27400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (4700 knot-ft) early in the evening. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).40 30 20 10 10 0 LAL.............3 3 1 1 1 1 Temp............57 51 47 45 44 42 RH..............55 68 76 79 82 86 20 ft wind......NW 8 NW 7 NW 6 NW 7 NW 7 NW 6 20 ft wind gust.15 13 11 12 13 12 Mix hgt (ft)....1700 600 500 500 600 500 Transport wind..NW 18 NW 10 NW 13 NW 13 NW 13 NW 12 Haines index....4 4 4 4 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100027 5 6 6 6 5 .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 65. Min humidity........37 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph. Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL late in the morning, then increasing to 6900 ft AGL in the afternoon decreasing to 4700 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 16 mph shifting to the west around 12 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4300-23000 knot-ft) increasing to good to excellent (48400-74700 knot-ft). Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............40 45 53 58 62 64 RH..............92 82 64 47 39 37 20 ft wind......NW 6 NW 6 N 6 NW 8 NW 8 W 7 20 ft wind gust.11 11 12 13 13 13 Mix hgt (ft)....500 1100 2900 5600 6700 6300 Transport wind..N 10 N 13 N 16 N 15 NW 13 W 13 Haines index....3 4 4 4 5 5 SDspl kt-ft/10004 12 40 75 73 69 $$ Forecaster...Cory Requested by...Andrew Nelson Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413688.0/DLH .DELDT 05/10/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL andrew.l.nelson@usda.gov