Text Products for ESF Issued by DTX

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Versions: 1 2 3
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FGUS73 KDTX 141744
ESFDTX
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-181200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1245 PM EST Thu Mar 14 2024


...2024 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook
for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton
 ...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins...

The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has
implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all
the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables
the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic
river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet
at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
 Pine River
Midland          12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Tittabawassee River
Midland          24.0   25.0   28.0     9   17    6   15   <5    6
 Shiawassee River
Owosso            7.0    9.0   10.0    21   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Kearsley Creek
Davison          10.0   11.0   12.0    11   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Flint River
Flint            13.0   15.0   17.0     9    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Cass River
Cass City        14.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Vassar           14.0   15.0   18.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Frankenmuth      17.0   20.0   25.0    25   38   <5   10   <5   <5
 Saginaw River
Saginaw          17.0   19.0   24.0    16   23   <5   11   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
 Clinton River
Clinton Twp      16.0   17.0   19.0    10   13    7    8   <5   <5
MT Clemens       16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 North Branch Clinton River
Mt Clemens       15.0   16.0   18.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
 River Rouge
Detroit          15.0   18.0   20.0    20   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Middle River Rouge
Dearborn Hts     10.0   11.0   12.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Lower Rouge River
Dearborn         11.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 Mill Creek
Dexter           12.0   13.0   14.0    <5    9    7    8   <5    5
 Huron River
Hamburg           7.0    7.5    8.0    12   20   <5   12   <5    7
Ann Arbor        16.0   17.0   18.0    11   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
 River Raisin
Tecumseh         13.0   14.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Aadrian          18.0   19.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Blissfield      683.0  685.0  687.0     7   11    6    7   <5   <5
Dundee          650.0  652.0  653.0    <5    9    6    8   <5    7
Monroe            9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   10   <5    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

...PAST PRECIPITATION...
This Winter was below normal in precipitation and much below normal in snow
fall.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
Most rivers are flowing from around to below normal.  Base flows are also
around to below normal.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH...
Upper zone of soil moisture is running around normal. The lower zone is below
normal.  Frost depths are little to none.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
Snow pack is non existant at this time.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
The outlook for the next 8-14 days calls for above average temperatures
and precipitation. The outlook for the rest of  Spring is for
above normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation.

...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK...
At this point with a lack of frost depth and snow pack, flooding will be driven
soley by excessive rainfall.  The outlook for the rest of the Spring is for
below average chances of minor flooding and much below average chance for moderate
to major flooding.


Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX


$$


DRC
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
