887
FNUS73 KDTX 061135
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Argo Nature Area Rx Burn...City of Ann Arbor Natural Area Preservation
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
735 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will be centered over Lake Huron today
and will sustain dry conditions, with afternoon RH values expected
to drop below 40 percent. High level clouds will inhibit full sun
today. A warm front will move into southern Michigan late Tuesday,
providing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Warm and dry
conditions will then prevail again on Wednesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds around 7 mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Good (MAX...444).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........75  72  69  69  67  65  62
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............61  63  65  67  68  69  68
RH..............44  41  38  37  35  34  35
EYE LVL WND DIR.E   E   E   E   E   E   E
EYE LVL WND SPD.7   7   7   7   7   7   7
EYE LVL WND GST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 3.1 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.4
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISPER....339 405 511 500 448 444 443

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent)becoming partly
                    cloudy (25-35 percent)becoming clear (0-5
                    percent).
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light, then becoming
                    northeast around 4 mph late in the
                    evening...becoming light...becoming northeast
                    around 4 mph after 3 am...becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MIN...28).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........60     56     38     21     1      0
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............68     63     55     49     46     45
RH..............36     44     57     67     74     80
EYE LVL WND DIR.E      NE     NE     E      NE     NE
EYE LVL WND SPD.6      5      2      4      4      4
EYE LVL WND GST.10     6      4      6      5      5
MIX HGT (KFT)...4200   600    400    400    400    400
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      3      3
SMOKE DISPER....464    44     33     42     36     35

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent)becoming mostly
                    cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds...becoming east up to 6 mph in the
                    morning and early afternoon, then becoming
                    southeast 6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 17 mph...becoming southeast 18 to 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Fair (MAX...291).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........11        48        81        86
WEATHER COV.....                              CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
TEMP............46        53        65        69
RH..............80        69        53        56
EYE LEVEL WIND..E 2       E 6       E 5       SE 6
EYE LEVEL WIND..4         8         6         10
MIX HGT (FT)....400       900       1800      1900
HAINES INDEX....3         3         3         3
SMOKE DISPER....39        113       265       335

$$
Forecaster...Arnold
Requested by...Becky Hand
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413243.0/DTX
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bhand@a2gov.org