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000
FXUS63 KDVN 250004
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
704 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost and freezing temps tonight nw IL.

- SLGT risk for severe storms Friday through Sunday.

- Rainfall of several inches through this weekend may cause
  flash flooding and/or river flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Tonight: Mostly clear skies, dry airmass, and light winds
should allow for good radiational cooling. Low temperatures
should drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across much of
northwest Illinois. Therefore, a Freeze Warning and Frost
Advisory has been issued for that area from midnight to 8 am
Thursday. Across the remainder of the forecast area enough of a
southeast wind and an increase in mid/high clouds should keep
temperatures warmer, with lows 35 to 40.

Thursday: Another nice day in store with partly sunny skies and
highs in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Thursday night through Sunday: Very active pattern with several
rounds of thunderstorms expected. Make sure you have multiple
ways to receive warnings! SPC has a SLGT risk for severe storms
(Level 2 of 5) across much of the forecast area for Friday,
Saturday, and Sunday. Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and
torrential rainfall are all on the table. PWAT`s are forecast
to increase to over 1.50 inches which is well above the 90th
percentile for late April. Two storm systems take a similar path
from the southern Plains to Minnesota during this time-frame.
One round occurs later Thursday night into Friday morning, with
another Friday evening into the night. Then maybe a brief lull
for a portion of Saturday, followed by heavy rainfall on
Saturday night. Then more severe storms possible Sunday
afternoon and evening as the main cold front arrives. Stay tuned
to later forecasts concerning this potential significant event.
Highs on the weekend should push well into the 70s to around 80
with dewpoints in the 60s.

Early next week: Dry weather returns in the wake of the storm
system with highs in the 60s on Monday and in the 70s on Tuesday.

Mid to late next week: The active pattern returns and CPC has a
Moderate risk for heavy rain across most of Iowa and northern MO
for May 2-3. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Skies are clear across the area to start the period along with
VFR conditions as high pressure sits to our northeast. High
pressure is forecast to push off to the east through the
remainder of the TAF perood. As high pressure moves to the east
after 12 UTC on Thursday, the pressure gradient will increase
to around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Mid level clouds
will slowly increase through the day on Thursday ahead of a
developing storm system in the Plains.



&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Thursday for
     ILZ001-002-007-009.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Thursday for
     ILZ017-018.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase/12
AVIATION...Cousins