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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131639
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind
event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 14N. Combined seas are
reaching as high as 14 ft, with a plume of seas in excess of 8 ft
reaching as far as 08N in NE swell. Ongoing high pressure north
of the area will continue to funnel these gales through this
morning, dropping to near gale or strong breeze late today, and
finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas should drop below 12 ft
this afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine interests
transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend
should be aware of this ongoing gap wind event and take the
necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the
affected waters.

Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
more information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 07N77W to 05N82W to 05N90W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 06N120W to 03N130W to beyond
03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
evident within 120 nm off the coasts of Colombia and NW Ecuador, from
02N to 07N between 88W and 102W, and from 04N to 13N between
102W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.

Fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail over the northern Gulf
of California, associated with a pre-frontal trough ahead of a
cold front approaching Baja California Norte from the west.
Elsewhere, outside of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle
variable winds persist across the Mexican offshore waters.
Combined seas are 5 to 6 ft off Baja California with a component
of NW swell, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere except 1 to 4 ft over the
Gulf of California.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, low
pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will continue to support
fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of California
through tonight. These winds will be reinforced by a weak cold
front that will be moving across the waters west of Baja
California Norte through Sun. This wil allow the continuation of
fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California through
early Sun morning. In the wake of the cold front, building high
pressure should cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja
California peninsula Sun night into late Tue. Afterward, gentle
to moderate NW winds will dominate the Baja Peninsula offshores
through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to
near gale-force wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and
coast of Nicaragua downwind to about 95W. Seas are estimated to
be 8 to 11 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate easterly winds
from this gap wind event extend into the outer offshore waters El
Salvador and Guatemala. Fresh to strong N gap winds preavil over
the Gulf of Panama as well, including the Azuero Peninsula and
extending as far south as 03N. Light and variable winds prevail
across the rest of the Central American and Equatorial Pacific
waters. Outside of the Papagayo and Panama regions, seas are 4
to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region
will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
and the coast of Nicaragua through Sun night, pulsing to near-
gale overnight tonight. The forcing will diminish some Mon into
Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will continue into mid week. The
same pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong
N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Elsewhere,
winds should remain moderate or weaker for the next several days.
Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
continue to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador through tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge north of 17N is weakening and shifting east ahead of a
cold front moving through the waters north of 20N and west of
125W. Trade wind flow farther south into the tropics is
diminishing as the ridge weakens, leaving an area of 8 ft seas in
NE swell from 06N to 10W west of 137W. Another area of NW swell
is moving south of 30N west of 120W following the front.
Meanwhile, as discussed above, NE swell of 8 to 10 ft is emerging
out of the the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching as far west as
105W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas
dominate elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken while moving
eastward across the waters north of 25N into Baja California
through Sun, then dissipate. Seas should reach to 12 ft near the
northern border of the discussion area at 30N today, before
slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to N swell will then
propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching as far south of
10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell will cross the
equator heading northward. These interacting swell will cause
combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 115W. Added
to this mix will include a component of shorter period seas due
to wind waves to create an area of confused seas from roughly 10N
to 15N between 115W and 130W. Farther east, the long tail of
fresh to strong NE to E winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 110W and as
far south as 08N. Seas will reach up to 10 ft.

$$
Ramos