Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281001
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:
Strong to near-gale force gap winds are occurring at the Gulf of
Tehunatepec. These winds will increase further to between gale
and strong-gale force after sunrise this morning. Seas under
these winds will build to 10 to 13 ft by noon today, and peak at
13 to 15 ft tonight. Swell generated by this gap wind event will
spread southwestward, creating 8 to 11 ft seas as far west as
100W and as far south as 09N on Fri morning. Both winds and seas
should begin to diminish late Fri afternoon.

Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially local
fishermen need to take necessary action to avoid these hazardous
marine conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
detail.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends west-southwestward from central
Panama across 08N78W and 05N105W to 02N127W. An ITCZ runs
westward from 02S109W to 03S130W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted near the trough from 03N to 06N between 81W and 93W,
and from 02N to 07N between 100W and 130W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed near the ITCZ from 06S to
02S between 117W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

A broad surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore waters
of Baja California, Revillagigedo Islands and Jalisco State with
gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the
Gulf of California, fresh with locally strong NW winds and 4 to
6 ft seas are present across central and southern gulf, while
light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft exist at the northern
gulf. Other than the Gale Warning area in the Tehuantepec
region, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed
moderate swells prevail for the southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, gap winds at the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
reach gale to strong-gale force after sunrise this morning, and
then persist through Fri morning. In response, very rough to high
seas are expected in the Tehuantepec region through early Fri
afternoon. The pressure gradient between a surface ridge across
the eastern Pacific, and lower pressure over Mexico will support
fresh to strong winds and rough seas at the central Gulf of
California until late this morning. A strong cold front is
forecast to enter the offshore waters of Baja California and
northern Gulf of California on Sat, bringing with it increasing
winds and large NW swell. This swell could generate high seas at
the outer offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sun morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering widely scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms south of the Galapagos Islands,
and off central Costa Rica. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the region. Otherwise, gentle
with locally moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail
across the offshore waters of Ecuador, Colombia, Panama, Costa
Rica and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas
at 2 to 4 ft are found offshore of Guatemala, El Salvador and
Nicaragua.

For the forecast, convergent southwesterly winds along with
abundant moisture will continue to support sporadic showers and
thunderstorms near the Galapagos Islands and in the Costa Rica
and Panama offshore waters through at least Fri. Winds and seas
could be higher near thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire
region through Thu night. Starting Fri, increasing gap winds and
rising seas will occur in the Papagayo area, and Gulf of Panama
as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, swell
generated by gap winds at the Tehuantepec region will cause rough
seas across the far southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters while a weakening
cold front is about to cross 30N135W. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial
trough/ITCZ maintains moderate to fresh trades along with 7 to 9
ft seas from 07N to 20N west of 125W, confirmed by the most
recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
along with 5 to 7 ft seas are evident across most of the waters
north of 20N and W of 120W. Gentle with locally moderate NE winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north of the equatorial trough
between 100W and 120W. Mostly gentle ENE to SE winds and 4 to 7
ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the
Pacific waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will linger across the waters
west of Baja California as the weakening front moves
southeastward across waters north of 20N. This will allow trade
winds from 07N to 20N west of 125W to diminish. Residual NW swell
will still big enough to keep 7 to 9 ft seas in this area until
this evening. A strong cold front will enter the Pacific waters
west of Baja California Norte on Fri, followed by fresh to strong
northerly winds and large seas.

$$

Chan


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