Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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056 FXUS64 KEPZ 010924 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 324 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 322 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Dry and warm weather for the foreseeable future as dry west to southwest flow aloft continues. Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, while the dry conditions will create near critical fire conditions. This afternoon will see breezy winds, though the rest of the week will remain on the lighter side for winds. Winds do become gusty again Sunday and Monday as a Pacific system begins moving in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Skies remain clear this morning as dry southwest flow aloft ahead of a trough over the Pac NW continues. At the surface, storms from the southern Plains created large area of outflow which is forcing the dryline westward toward our CWA. Lead edge of the moisture surge in far SE NM and Pecos Valley of Texas. There is a salient of moisture out ahead surging to Carlsbad. HRRR initializes this feature pretty well and shows farthest west position near Hudspeth County and possible briefly into extreme eastern Hudspeth later this morning. Models all show westerlies forcing the dryline well east of our area by prime heating time this afternoon--thus not much impact from the moisture. Elsewhere the aforementioned upper trough moves over the Great Basin this afternoon, developing decent lee-side low over SE Colorado. This will produce some gusty winds this afternoon. This will lead to near critical fire conditions all areas. RFW conditions could briefly materialize around the fire zones. Not much change through Saturday as dry southwest flow aloft persists. Afternoon winds each day, though breezy, should be a bit lower than today, so fire conditions remaining in an elevated state. Next feature to watch is Pacific system moving to the Pac NW Saturday and then over the Great Basin Sunday. This will begin ramping up winds for both Sunday and Monday. Upper trough too far north for any shot at rain, but fire conditions likely bumping into RFW criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VMC through forecast period under dry southwest flow aloft. Skies SKC overnight and Wednesday. Surface winds 240-280 at 05-10 knots overnight, increasing to 15 to 20 knots Wednesday afternoon. Peak gusts up to 30 knots across southern NM mid-afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Fire conditions will remain at least elevated through the weekend and into Monday. This afternoon winds will pick up and reach and fire conditions will reach near-critical, especially over the lowlands of zones 111 and 112. Winds subside a bit the rest of the week into Saturday, but our next Pacific storm moves just north of us Sunday and Monday. This will result in gusty winds and likely RFW conditions both days. Min RHs: Lowlands 6-10% through Sunday. Mountains 8-15% through Sunday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 90 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 85 57 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 89 55 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 87 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 66 39 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 87 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 78 46 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 87 50 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 85 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 87 59 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 90 51 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 91 56 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 83 53 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 90 57 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 88 54 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 87 56 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 86 47 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 88 50 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 87 56 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 85 51 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 79 45 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 77 43 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 76 42 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 81 43 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 85 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 85 47 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 79 41 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 81 44 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 83 35 83 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 79 34 79 35 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 81 47 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 85 49 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 85 52 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 84 49 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 79 47 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner