Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 261937
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
237 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Abundant sunshine across the region early this afternoon but mid-
level clouds will filter into the Southern Edwards Plateau from late
this afternoon into this evening. Continues to trend a tad cooler
today as afternoon highs top out in the upper 60s into the 70s for
most outside of the Rio Grande. Areas along the Rio Grande will
likely top out in the low 80s. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions remain across the Southern Edwards Plateau where
modest northwest breezes and low humidity overlap.

From tonight into tomorrow morning, we`ll see the base of an upper
level trough slide across the region. Mid-level moisture associated
with this feature will yield to a region of scattered showers and
virga to advance west to east across the region from overnight
tonight through early Wednesday afternoon. A dryline does follow
behind into Wednesday afternoon and this boundary could spark some
isolated to widely scattered convection in the Hill Country where
limited instability with MUCAPE up to around 500 J/kg develops. The
activity could slide eastward into the I-35 corridor north of San
Antonio before diminishing across the coastal plains with the loss
of daytime heating into/through tomorrow evening. Model sounding
analysis indicate inverted V sounding profiles where a dry low-level
atmosphere remains underneath the mid-level moisture layer around
the 750 mb level. If a stronger cell or two is able to develop,
stronger microburst winds could occur as a result. Otherwise, some
small hail and a locally heavy downpour could be possible with a
strong storm. SPC highlights a level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms
that extends southward from the FWD CWA across portions of our
northern most counties.

Fair weather restores to our region during Wednesday night through
Thursday morning as the base of the trough exits to the east and
ridging starts to build into the region from the west. Expect for
overnight lows to dip into the 40s for most after the afternoon
highs climbed into the 70s on Wednesday. A few Hill Country
communities may dip into the upper 30s early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Southerly flow is expected to be in place across South-Central Texas
for the beginning of the long-term period of the forecast on
Thursday. Moisture return will take a day to pick back up so we
should see at least one more day of some elevated fire weather
conditions out west Thursday afternoon as low humidity and breezy
flow continues. Highs Thursday will be warm, in the 70s and 80s.
Higher moisture and warmer temperatures are expected by the weekend
with highs Sunday ranging from the lower 80s to middle 90s with
slightly higher temperatures possible on Monday afternoon depending
on some possible cloud cover. The next upper trough axis is progged
to return Monday night into Tuesday and could bring with it the next
chance of rain to portions of the area. This is not a slam dunk at
this point in the ensemble guidance and will continue to show low
PoPs in the official forecast for now to cover the possibility.
Hopefully some areas will see some more beneficial spring rainfall.
Mostly dry weather will then possibly return for Tuesday with warm
temperatures continuing across South-Central Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR flight conditions will mainly prevail through the period. Skies
start off sky clear but mid to high level clouds will start to filter
in to the western regions, including KDRT, later this afternoon and
spreads eastward into and through the duration of the night and into
Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to
establish with the mid-level moisture and this begins out west from
the overnight and spreads eastward into Wednesday. Added -SHRA after
07Z at KDRT and VCSH at the I-35 terminal sites (KAUS, KSAT, KSSF)
starting Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon in the last 6 hours
of the 30 hr TAFs could see isolated convection develop and approach
KAUS but confidence is too low at this time to include thunder in
this TAF package. Light to moderate winds are expected through the
period with the directions shifting and/or becoming variable at
times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible
during the rest of this afternoon, again for both Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons, for locations across Val Verde, Edwards and
Kinney counties. RH values will dip into the teens each day while
sustained wind speeds could briefly reach up to around 15 mph at
times. Portions of the Rio Grande plains may see RH dip below 20
percent as well both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon but
winds will be lighter and conditions less conducive for fire
weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              49  71  50  77 /   0  30   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  45  71  45  76 /   0  30   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     47  72  47  79 /   0  30   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            46  70  45  76 /   0  30   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           54  83  49  85 /  20  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        45  70  45  76 /   0  30  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             50  75  44  80 /  10  30   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        46  71  45  77 /   0  30   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   46  70  47  75 /   0  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       50  74  49  79 /  10  30   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           50  73  48  79 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...29
Aviation...Brady


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