798
FXUS64 KEWX 282327
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
627 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

We`ll continue to monitor the convective trends across the coastal
plains into this evening where a Tornado Watch remains in effect
through 9 PM. However, greatest concern still remain more focused
within the FWD and HGX CWAs compared to ours. Fog is a concern for
overnight tonight into Monday morning given the lighter winds and
ground moisture from the recent rain. The fog could become locally
dense, especially across portions of the I-35 corridor, coastal
plains, and Hill Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Convection continues across south central Texas with a cluster of
storms ongoing across Williamson county and severe storms in the
coastal plains. Breaks in the cloud cover should bring about
destabilization of the atmosphere through this afternoon, especially
east of I-35/I-37 as this area has largely not seen much convection
yet. Healthy southeast winds in the lower levels and 0-6km shear
near 50kts will be enough to get storms rotating. SPC has issued
Tornado Watch #158 until 9 PM for our counties east of the I-35/I-37
corridors.

With the loss of daytime heating, we should see a decrease in the
coverage of convection and we will remove rain chances after
Midnight. Patchy fog development is expected, especially from the
Hill Country eastward given recent rains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The Subtropical Jet will remain active through the long term
forecast period, with daily rain and storm chances in the works for
South Central Texas. Periods of rain and storms, some possibly
producing beneficial to locally heavy rainfall appear possible
through next weekend.

On Tuesday afternoon, PWATs will steadily climb from 1-1.25" in the
morning to the 1.5"-1.75" range and they aren`t expected to drop
below that range through the remainder of the long term period. As
southwest flow aloft continues, it will send a series of shortwave
disturbances through South Central Texas. There will be several
notable periods for better storm chances over the region, most
notably Wednesday evening and again Friday night as global models
want to send a cold front through the region from north to south.
Guidance has been back and forth on whether or not this frontal
boundary will even move into the region, so take the forecast for
cooler temperatures with a grain of salt as confidence at this
distance is still quite low. Ensembles have backed off the idea of a
front moving through the CWA at all, so the forecast is increasingly
uncertain from Friday morning onward.

WPC has highlighted the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor north of San
Antonio, and the Coastal Plains in a Thursday and Friday level 1 of
4 (Marginal Risk) for excessive rainfall. The overall pattern
supports this threat, but where exactly any heavier storms set up is
tough to pinpoint at this time. For the time being, expect some
warm, muggy mornings in the lower 70s, along with afternoons in the
mid to upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday-Thursday before slightly
cooler air arrives Friday and Saturday with the potential front
getting picked up in the NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR flight conditions continue this evening with perhaps a nearby
shower still possible around KAUS. Expect for flight conditions to
deteriorate tonight as fog and low ceilings develop with the light
winds and ground moisture from recent rains. IFR flight conditions
are likely at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) with perhaps
conditions becoming as low as LIFR to VLIFR. Fog could become dense
in areas as well into Monday morning. KDRT remains VFR for much of
the night but could see a period of MVFR ceilings near or just
beyond sunrise for a few hours. The flight conditions improve back
to VFR into Monday afternoon with clouds also decreasing in coverage
from west to east. Winds will stay generally light at 10 knots or
less with variable wind directions at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  88  69  86 /  10   0  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            66  86  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  96  74  95 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  87  66  85 /  10   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             67  90  69  89 /   0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  88  68  86 /  10  10  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  86  70  84 /  40  10  10  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  88  70  86 /   0   0  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           70  90  71  87 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TORNADO WATCH 158 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT ACROSS BASTROP CALDWELL
DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GUADALUPE KARNES LAVACA LEE WILSON COUNTIES

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Brady