129
FXUS64 KEWX 050543
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1243 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH 184
... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tornado Watch #184 for Val Verde county has been allowed to expire.
Radar trends show the strongest convection previously over Val Verde
county has moved east into Edwards county. While some additional
convection remains possible across Val Verde county, the stronger
storms should largely remain over the southern Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country into early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A dryline is located in west Texas with a surface front draped
across the northern portion of the state just south of the
panhandle. South Central Texas continues to stay in the warm, humid
airmass ahead of these features with thick cloud cover and humid
conditions continuing today. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms
will be possible this afternoon around peak heating, although the
higher confidence for precipitation in the area arrives this evening
through Sunday morning.

Thunderstorms will likely develop west of the area late this
afternoon along the front and the dryline extending over the higher
terrain in Mexico. Much like previous nights, the question is
whether the storms west of the Rio Grande will make it across the
river into our far western reaches. Of higher confidence are the
storms in west Texas becoming a complex which will will shift
eastward overnight into Sunday aided by a passing shortwave trough.
This complex of storms may become a line with the leading edge
moving across the Hill Country or southern Edwards Plateau a little
before midnight. This complex will likely move through portions of
the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains into Sunday morning. There is
the potential for storms to be severe tonight, especially in the far
west where initial development is anticipated. Large to very large
hail, damaging wind gusts, or an isolated tornado will all be
possible. As storms progress into a line, damaging winds may become
the primary hazard later in the night. SPC has continued the Level 3
of 5 Risk across far northwestern Val Verde County, with a Level 2
of 5 risk across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio
Grande Plains, Hill Country, and I-35 corridor. In addition to this
threat, heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding is also a
concern. Much of where the heaviest rain is expected depends on the
track of the line of storms this evening, but the best potential
looks to be in the far northeastern portion of the area. A Flood
Watch has been issued for Llano, Burnet, Williamson, and Lee
Counties through Sunday afternoon based on this potential and the
potential for some additional rain on Sunday.

Precipitation chances continue through Sunday afternoon and early
Sunday evening, although there is much more uncertainty in exact
details after any morning storms. It is likely some kind of outflow
boundary will remain in the area and with destabilization in the
afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop along this feature.
Storms would once again have the potential to become severe with
large hail the initial threat. Upscale growth may occur as some
models do depict a secondary line of storms moving across the area
in the afternoon hours. Rain and thunderstorm chances finally
decrease Sunday night as the upper level shortwave moves into the
southeastern US.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The day on Monday starts relatively dry with cloudy skies and
temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s for the morning commute.
As the day progresses, the clouds are forecast to break for partly
cloudy skies with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s most locations
and low 90s along the Rio Grande. The active dry-line is likely
lingering between west Texas and Val Verde County during the
afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop across
the Hill Country in the afternoon, otherwise, dry and warm for the
most part.

A dry and warm pattern is in store from Tuesday into Thursday with
high temperatures getting warmer each day. Thursday is forecast to
be the warmest day of this week with temperatures in the upper 80s
to mid 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal
Plains to the 100-104 range along the Rio Grande.

A cold front is forecast to push across the local area late Thursday
night into Friday and brings a slight chance for showers and storms
mainly on Friday. Friday`s highs will be much cooler with
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the northern part of
South Central Texas and low 90s along the Rio Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A convective cluster should remain a near solid line when it arrives
to impact AUS by 08Z. The tail end of the line will approach SAT/SSF
after 08Z, but expect mainly some feeder showers to impact the TAF
sites while the end of the line weakens and leaves a remnant
boundary. The end of the line could get within 10 nm of DRT in the
next hour but shouldn`t stick around for long at all. The remnant
boundary, after a few hours of relatively dormant weather and low end
MVFR to high end IFR cigs, will begin a new round of convection to
impact potentialy all sites during the midday hours. Models would
suggest the more intense activity with this cluster would be over
SAT/SSF. By 23Z, convective activity should shift east of I-35.
Borderline MVFR/IFR cigs should develop again over I-35 late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  86  72  91 /  20  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  86  72  90 /  20  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  88  72  93 /  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            69  84  71  89 /  20  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  95  74  99 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  84  71  89 /  20  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             70  87  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  86  71  91 /  20  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  86  74  90 /  20   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  86  72  91 /  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           72  88  73  93 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this afternoon for Burnet-Lee-Llano-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18