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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260818
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
318 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Wet weekend ahead, with probabilities for greater than half
an inch of precipitation around 50 - 80% in the Red River
Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

As the first system this weekend approaches our area, satellite show
clouds encroaching on the area. This weekend looks overcast, with
some breaks possible in the northern Devils Lake Basin between the
systems.

Synoptically, another ejecting low will follow the current system
Sunday into Monday, but precip totals look to be less with that
system. Southwest flow will stick around after that into mid-week,
allowing a active pattern to set up more rain chances into next
week.

Precipitation chances with this system look to last through early
Sunday. While probabilities for greater than half an inch of precip
are around 50 - 80% in the Red River Valley, probabilities for an
inch or more have increased to 20 - 30% south of Hwy 200 in the Red
River Valley. Higher amounts of rain (like that 1" probability) are
mainly dependent upon the track of the low and any thunderstorms
embedded in the showers (which will be dependent on MUCAPE in the
area, which continues to increase in the southern valley to about
500 - 1000 J/kg in the CAMs). Probabilities for 1" or greater
are likely increasing due to the increase in CAPE seen in
guidance. The Sunday/Monday system has much lower probabilities
for meaningful rainfall, with most likely amounts looking to be
around half an inch. Probabilities for greater than or equal to
0.5" of rain with that system are 40 - 60% along and south of
HWY 200, and Probabilities for an inch or greater are <20%.

After a rainy weekend, temperatures will rebound back into the 50s
and 60s for highs by mid-week, with lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions should prevail during the early TAF period,
however increasing low level moisture ahead of approaching low
pressure will resin in MVFR/IFR stratus eventually
overspreading eastern ND and northwest MN Friday morning.
Showers will also increase in coverage, and while some embedded
thunderstorms are possible, coverage/confidence in impacts at
terminals is too low to include TS in TAFs at this time.
Visibility reductions (3-6sm) will be possible when the main
periods of rain move through the region Friday (midday into the
evening). Winds should shift from the southeast to the
northeast through the TAF period as low pressure passes and
eventually prevail less than 12kt.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...DJR