180
FXUS63 KFGF 090856
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
356 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms in parts of northwest Minnesota Friday
  afternoon.

- Chance for showers and thunderstorms mid next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Skies are mainly clear over the fcst area as drier air moves in
from the north-northeast. Expect a mostly sunny sky today with
dry airmass over the area due to high pressure in NW Ontario.
NBM temps Wednesday were too cool and did go more of a NBM/NBM90
blend in temps to boost highs 2-3 degrees today in the Red
River valley where it was warmest yesterday. RH values will drop
into the upper 20 to mid 30 percent range but north wind speeds
generally around 10-15 mph will preclude any near critical fire
weather conditions in addition to greenup progress due to recent
rainfall.

500 mb ridging east today across west and northwest Canada today
will allow for trough to return back south into NW Ontraio and
the Great Lakes region late tonight into Friday. 500 mb short
wave with this feature will move south-southeast thru Minnesota
with 500 mb coldest temps located Baudette to Park Rapids and
east. Before this does a sfc trough will move east across the
area tonight in advance of the southeast moving system. 100 j/kg
CAPE and some mid level moisture may produce isolated showers
mid/late aftn in western Manitoba, far southeast Saskatchewan
and western half of ND. Trough will move east thru the fcst area
after dark and no precipitation is expected as it does.

With 500 mb short wave moving into Minnesota Friday, coldest 500
mb temps will align with high temps in the 60s in Minnesota to
generate 300-700 j/kg mostly in northeast, east central MN with
chance for thunderstorms. The western edge of t-storm chances
will be the Baudette to Park Rapids corridor. Moisture and
instability are considerably less farther west into the Red
River valley where chances for any showers Friday afternoon have
diminished to less than 15 pct. RH values will drop into the
upper 20s within the Red River valley. North-northwest winds
look to gust to 30-35 mph or so based on sounding potential
with mixing up past 800 mb. With greenup having occurred hard to
tell on fuels and if near critical fire wx wording is needed for
some areas. Will hold off and let future shifts look at this.

Another fast moving short wave from northern Manitoba will move
into NW Ontraio Saturday and a weak surface boundary moving thru
as well. Timing of this wave in the late aftn/eve Saturday will
bring a slight chc of showers to NW MN.

Warm day on Sunday with highs well in the 70s all areas, with
potential 80 in the valley.

Next week still showing quite a bit of uncertainity in regards
to the upper air pattern. Overall trends remain that there will
be a trough over central Canada and the central US Tues-Thu
period with chances for showers and t-storms. Instability doesnt
look that high so nothing strong anticipated. Using NBM 4.1
48 hour probs for more than 0.50 inch in the 12z Tue-12z Thu
period is 30 percent and probs for more than 1 inch in that
period is 10 percent.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

BKN clouds continue to linger across TVF, BJI, GFK, and DVL this
evening. Ceilings remain VFR underneath these clouds. Winds turn
light and variable overnight for all sites, with the slight
chance for patchy fog near sunrise. Winds increase out of the
north around 15-17z with clouds becoming FEW to SCT. Near the
end of the TAF period, winds go light and variable once again
with a cloud deck moving in from Canada.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Spender