National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 240841
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
341 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 101 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/
/Through Thursday/

Dew point temperatures in the lower-mid 60s have returned as
anticipated in advance of our next developing storm system well
west of the forecast area across the Intermountain West and
Rockies. This will bring that humid feel to the environment
through the mid week period unfortunately. The cap remained quite
strong this past afternoon and evening. Outside of a brief strong
storms in the Big Country, nothing had a chance to get
going...especially east of US-281 where the base of a strong cap
based around 815mb (per latest 00z FWD sounding) remains
entrenched. The surface cold front that moved into southern
Oklahoma on Tuesday has now retreated as a warm front back north
across the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Oklahoma. This trend will
continue through Thursday, as the upper ridge strengthens over
North and Central Texas and the focus of surface and cyclogenesis
and strong ascent remain well displaced north of the area across
the Central High Plains. The nose of warm and moist advection will
also be displaced to north of I-40 from northern Oklahoma into
Nebraska with mainly warm, breezy, and humid weather across our
area.

Each day the elevated mixed layer/cap aloft will be slightly more
elevated and relatively weaker to allow for low thunderstorm
probabilities across the Red River Valley into the far northeast
counties. The upper ridge overhead and associated subsidence will
likely cause these to be of the general variety, though a brief
more robust cell with gusty winds and possibly small hail can`t be
completely ruled out.

Lows each morning will remain in the 60s with highs generally
warming to between 75 and 80 degrees due to the depth of low level
moisture underneath the cap deepening with less opportunity to
mix out and allow strong insolation. Stratus and patchy light fog
will be the norm each morning as southerly winds weaken to below
10 mph with mostly cloudy and breezy afternoons with speeds 10 to
15 kts with occasional gusts between 20-25 mph.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Several days of active weather are in store this weekend. No
single day will be a complete washout, but given the multiple
rounds of storms expected, make sure to plan your weekend
activities accordingly.

A mostly precipitation free Thursday night will give way to
increasing rain chances come Friday morning. A shortwave will be
emerging out of the Rockies, spreading rapid height falls across
North and Central Texas. An attendant cold front will move east
through the night, knocking on North/Central Texas` door step come
sunrise. Although the bulk of the ascent is expected to remain
well north of our region, an open warm sector coupled with the
incoming cold front will likely lead to the development of
thunderstorms. With 1500+ J/kg of CAPE in place and effective
shear of 40+ knots, a few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out by mid morning. Through the afternoon, instability is
expected to gradually build as steeper mid-level lapse rates move
into our region. This should lead to additional thunderstorm
development out ahead of the slow-moving front. The severe weather
threat will continue through the afternoon as large hail,
damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

As the shortwave moves away from the region, precipitation
chances will significantly decrease Friday night. Southerly winds
will help push the front west/northwest overnight. Its new
placement will dictate where storms fire off Saturday with the
arrival of the next shortwave. Guidance continues to keep much of
North and Central Texas in the warm sector with a few warm air
advection showers and storms by mid-morning. The shortwave will
once again send a weak front eastward, catching up to the dryline
and likely leading to another round of vigorous convection. With
mid-level lapse rates of 8 degC/Km and 1500+ J/Kg of instability,
strong to severe storms will once again be possible. Threats will
be large hail, damaging winds. The severe weather threat will
persist into Saturday night as storms shift eastward.

The front will stall on Sunday, providing yet additional chances
for showers and storms across our region. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will once again be possible mainly east of I-35 on
Sunday, where sufficient instability and shear will be present.
The storm chances will linger through Monday before the front
retreats back to the northwest.

Weak ridging aloft will move across the region on Tuesday,
leading to a dry day across the region. The precipitation-free
conditions will be short-lived as another system approaches the
area by Wednesday with additional showers and storms in the
forecast.


Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 101 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

All airports through the D10 airspace are forecast to drop into
low MVFR by 09z, with Waco Regional Airport already seeing high
MVFR cigs AoA 2 kft already. The challenge arises with whether
cigs temporarily go IFR between 13z-17z like the LAMP/GLAMP/and
CONSSHORT guidances advertise, or if these conditions are more
brief (or occur at all) like the RAP/HRRR.

With these uncertainties and low confidence on evolution of cigs
in mind, I`ve split the difference by only advertising a 2-hr
TEMPO group of IFR with MVFR vsbys between 12z-15z. I`ll adjust
trends as guidance comes more in line with actual evolution of
cigs later this morning.

S/SE winds will prevail around 10 kts or less, though a few gusts
to between 15-20 kts will be possible by this afternoon.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  68  79  68  83 /  10  10   5  50  80
Waco                80  68  80  69  78 /  10   0   0  20  70
Paris               76  64  79  68  76 /  40  30  20  20  90
Denton              78  67  78  67  83 /  20  20  10  60  70
McKinney            77  68  78  68  80 /  20  20  10  40  80
Dallas              79  68  79  69  82 /  10  10   5  40  80
Terrell             78  66  79  68  78 /  10  10   5  20  80
Corsicana           80  68  80  70  80 /   5   0   0  10  80
Temple              80  67  80  68  80 /  10   0   0  10  60
Mineral Wells       79  66  81  66  86 /   5  20   5  70  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$