022
FXUS63 KGLD 062103
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
303 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Although the severe weather threat has diminished for the Tri-
  State area, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this
  evening for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, and
  Sherman, Wallace, Wichita, Logan and Greeley counties in
  Kansas. Limited areas of blowing dust will also be possible
  through this afternoon.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late Tuesday morning
  through Tuesday afternoon for Cheyenne County in Colorado, and
  Wallace, Wichita, Greeley and Logan counties in Kansas.
  Relative humidity values in the teens and winds gusting above
  25 MPH are expected.

- The next chance for thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon
  for the northern two thirds of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows storms continue to move to the east,
further away from the area.  Areas along and east of the
Kansas/Colorado line are mostly sunny to sunny, with some cue
developing over northeastern and eastern Colorado.  Expect gusty
westerly to southwesterly winds across the area for the rest of
today, behind the Pacific front, diminishing this evening.  Low
relative humidity values (teens to 20s) will also be in place.
Critical to near critical fire weather conditions remain through
around sunset. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8PM MDT
for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, and Sherman,
Wallace, Wichita, Greeley and Logan counties in northwestern Kansas.
 Dry conditions are expected overnight.

A closed low will remain over the western portion of the Dakotas
through the day on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, a broad, upper trough will
extend west to east from the PACNW to Minnesota and south into the
Tri-State area.  A tight pressure gradient and westerly winds will
make Tuesday another warm and windy day across the region.  Near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected late
Tuesday morning through early evening, particularly for the southern
third of the area.  Minimum relative humidity values will fall into
the teens in the afternoon, with winds gusting above 25 MPH.  A Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Cheyenne County in Colorado, and
Wallace, Wichita, Logan, and Greeley counties in Kansas.  Afternoon
high temperatures will range from the mid-60s in Colorado, to
approaching 80 in the southern portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Wednesday and Thursday, the closed low will drop into central South
Dakota and Nebraska.  Wednesday evening and overnight, a few showers
will be possible in the northwestern portions of the area.  The
better chance (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms will be
Thursday afternoon across the northern two thirds of the area.
Temperatures will be in the 60s each day for highs and the 30s and
40s for lows.

A more active weather pattern starts beginning Friday as the area
comes under northerly to northwest flow.  Heading into the weekend,
there appears to be the potential for a disturbance moving in, which
could bring an additional chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

At KGLD: VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the
forecast period. Sustained westerly winds of 25-35kts with gusts
to 45kts are expected through the afternoon, decreasing heading
into the evening. Winds are expected to fall to around 8-13kts
this evening. Winds will pick up again around mid-morning
Tuesday out of the west. A few high clouds are expected
throughout the forecast period, with a few possible mid-level
clouds coming in this evening for a few hours.

At KMCK: VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.
Ceilings are expected to continue to improve as a line of
thunderstorms toward Beaver City and Norton continues to move to
the east. Outside of a brief period this evening where a few
mid-level clouds move in, a few high clouds may impact the
terminal. Sustained winds out of the southwest will remain gusty
today, eventually becoming westerly as a pacific front moves
through the region. Winds are expected to decrease heading into
the evening, increasing again around mid-morning Tuesday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ013-027-028-041-042.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM
     CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser