805
FXUS62 KGSP 270522
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
122 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will lift north of our area this evening. After
that, we can expect a warming trend through the weekend and into
next week as high pressure takes over. A weak cold front is expected
to approach from the northwest on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM Update...Current mesoanalysis and micro-Sat show low to mid
level clouds hanging tough this morning along and east of I-26.
Expect these clouds to persist for the most part overnight, while
widespread Ci rounds a h5 ridge to the west. Could see some dense
fog across the srn NC mtn river valleys this morning, but will be
close depending on the amt and thickness of clouds traversing the
area possibly limiting cooling.

Otherwise, 1030+ mb surface high pressure over New England is
expected to ooze slowly south through the period...and is forecast
to be centered a couple hundred miles off the upper Mid-Atlantic
coast by this evening. This movement of the parent high into a less
favorable location will result in gradual cessation of northeast low
level flow and modification of weak hybrid cold air damming
regime/thinning of cloud cover by the afternoon. As such, todays`s
max temps are expected to be significantly warmer than
yesterday...actually topping out very close to climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EDT Friday: We will continue to warm up through the
latter half of the weekend with deep layered ridging lingering atop
the SE CONUS.  The atmosphere is expected to remain suppressed, as
piedmont temperatures warm to near 80 in spots.  To start off the
work week, with only subtle changes expected in the mean ridge
positioning, it looks like another quiet wx day on Monday.
Coincident with the warming flow around Bermuda high pressure max
temperatures will average around 5 deg F above Sunday`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday: Southern plains energy supporting a weakly
forced cool front will eject toward the cwfa on Tuesday. Forecast
model blends and ensembles maintain a decent response as this
feature shears across the region, likely being able to aid in the
development of numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms in the
mountains, with increasingly more limited deep convective cvrg by
the time forcing makes it to the piedmont.

The pattern keeps a progressive look for the rest of the week and
the most notable feature is the llvl ridge of very warm air with
does not get displaced, so we expect lower elevation daily maximums
to reach well into the 80s through next Friday.  In the wake of
Tuesday`s weak s/wv passage, there may be a thunderstorm chance
minima on Wednesday but rising back to more solid chances by the end
of the period as broad frontal zone nears.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR CIGs continue at KAVL this morning thru
daybreak, possibly lingering till noon. Lowering VSBY to MVFR is
also possible at KAVL arnd daybreak for a couple hrs. KHKY could see
MVFR CIGs develop arnd daybreak persisting thru the morning hours
before lifting to VFR. Otherwise, expect low to mid level VFR CIGs
elsewhere into the late afternoon/evening. Winds become and remain
more se/ly with a limited gust potential today as a strong sfc high
centers and broadens off the midAtl coast.

Outlook: Drying is expected Sunday/Monday. A frontal system could
bring a round of showers and storms to the area Tuesday, with more
of a potential for isolated/scattered diurnal convection on Wed.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...SBK