Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHUN 190357
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1057 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 814 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Breezy NW winds have continued this evening even after sunset,
reinforcing this cool, dry air mass as temperatures have fallen
into the upper 30s to lower 40s as of 01z. As an area of high
pressure shifts eastward over the area overnight, these winds are
expected to weaken and become very light. The combination of a
clear sky, light winds, and this very dry air mass (dewpoints in
the Teens) will allow temperatures to drop off quickly after
Midnight -- with a hard freeze expected across the entire
Tennessee Valley. Lows in the mid to upper 20s will be common by
early Tuesday morning and a Freeze Warning is in effect from 06z
to 14z to account for temperatures dropping well below the
freezing mark. Those with sensitive outdoor plants should take
steps to cover them and folks should remember to bring their pets
indoors!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The center of this area of high pressure quickly weakens as it
shifts southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Models continue to show a weak surface front and associated
longwave trough axis aloft stretching from SE Canada through the
Ohio Valley and Southern Plains area by then. Advection of
moisture and warmer temperatures aloft should help to provide
warmer conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. After reaching the
mid to upper 50s in the afternoon, lows still look to drop into
the mid 30s (east) to around 40 degrees (west). A decent pressure
gradient develops between the front to the north and the weakening
high over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This should keep winds
from becoming light or calm Tuesday night, keeping frost at bay.

This weak front moves into the Tennessee Valley region Wednesday
morning. This should continue to bring more moisture and warmer
temperatures into the region. A canopy of mid level cloud cover is
shown moving into locations north of the Tennessee River. These
clouds look to become thicker and lower during the day. However,
at this time, the lower levels of the atmosphere still look too
dry for any rainfall to occur. Stronger warm air advection sets up
along and ahead of the front. Kept close to current ensemble
guidance with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees
primarily, despite cloudy conditions. Given 925 mb temperatures,
think that may still be reasonable. Lingering cloud cover near the
front and moisture advection should continue and only allow lows
to drop into the lower to mid 40s Wednesday night as the front
stalls somewhere across northern Alabama.

How far the front sags southeast Thursday morning will have an
impact on how warm it gets later in the day. Most models have
cooler temperatures near and north of the Tennessee River, where
the front may end up stalling. If it edges further south
temperatures may be slightly cooler. Right now, that puts highs in
the 61 to 66 degree range north of the river and mid/upper 60s
further south. Cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures
cooler than otherwise. A disturbance aloft develops along this
front over eastern Texas in most guidance. This feature moves east
along the front and could bring the area isolated to scattered
showers late Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

This shortwave disturbance will dig into the Tennessee Valley by
Thursday night, bringing increasing rain chances overnight through
Friday. Models still differ slightly regarding the timing of this
system, but the consensus does show the main sfc low well over
the Gulf of Mexico, keeping the better thermodynamic environment
well to our south. Have kept thunder out of the forecast with dry
conditions developing Friday night.

The weekend will start off on the cooler side, with highs in the low
to mid 60s on Saturday and clearing skies. Radiational cooling will
allow lows to fall into the lower 40s Saturday night into Sunday
morning, but should warm up nicely Sunday afternoon as southerly flow
starts to return to the area. In fact, could not really ask for a
better forecast for Sunday, with mostly sunny skies and afternoon
highs near 70 degrees. Overall, nothing too impactful expected within
the long term period!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period.
Light winds and a clear sky will continue overnight, before winds
become gusty again Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP.24


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.