Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 171115
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
615 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Some light rain/showers are continuing to spread eastward across
north MS and will cross into north AL heading closer to break.
This light rain is occurring ahead of a cold front that continues
to move southward across the OH Valley westward into the Midwest
states. This light rain will weaken/drift more to the south later
today as the front approaches the mid TN Valley. Rain chances will
generally be around 20-30% today for north AL. Latest NWP guidance
has the front sweeping thru the area late this afternoon with
light rain tapering off. The cooler air in the wake of the front
though looks to be displaced 12-24hr, resulting in highs later
today climbing mainly into the lower 60s for most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Cooler air will begin to filter into the area from the NNW later
tonight, as a deep upper trough axis drops southward across the
eastern CONUS into the new week. This will help usher unseasonably
cooler/drier air into the central TN Valley thru Mon night. Lows
into early Mon look to fall predom into the mid/upper 30s, with
temps then struggling to reach the 50F mark later in the day.
Temps will then fall below freezing or into the mid/upper 20s late
Mon night and a Freeze Watch has been issued for all of the area
from 1AM Mon night thru 9AM Tue morning. A Freeze Warning will
likely be issued in the next 24 hrs or so. In addition to freezing
temps, light winds will also result in areas of frost early Tue
morning. Temps will then begin to gradually recover on Tue, as
high pressure out of the Plains states pushes southward into the
Gulf Coast region. Developing sfc flow out of the SW will allow
highs on Tue to climb more into the mid/upper 50s. This gradual
warming trend will continue into Tue night, with lows trending
more in the mid 30s/near 40F, under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

By Wednesday, broad upper ridging will help bring increasing
temperatures and moisture into the area with afternoon highs reaching
near 70 degrees and increasing clouds during the afternoon. Models do
begin to diverge a bit toward the later half of the work week, as a
shortwave is progged to shift into the Southeast region resulting in
increasing chances for rain. With differing solutions regarding the
placement and timing of this system, have stuck with blended PoPs of
20-30% Thursday and Friday. With the sfc low well to our south, have
kept thunder out of the forecast due to the low likelihood of enough
instability to generate thunderstorms. As of now, it looks more
likely that rain will largely hold off until early Friday, but will
continue to monitor trends as we get closer in range. Won`t see any
large fluctuations with temperatures after this system, with highs
remaining in the 60s through the remainder of the extended period and
lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Any -shra will continue to gradually spread eastward across parts
of the area this morning before tapering off to the SE early this
afternoon. Otherwise, mid-level cigs will prevail at both main
terminals for much of the day before diminishing this evening.
Light/var winds will also become NNW near 7kt later this morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09


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