Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
000
FXUS64 KHUN 152244
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
544 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Earlier breaks in cloud cover have allowed temperatures in many
areas to reach the 64 to 68 degree range. A few locations east of
the I-65 corridor could still reach the lower 70s before sunset
today.
The main frontal boundary with this storm system has yet to move
through the area and currently stretches from SE Kentucky SW
through Nashville, TN into NW Alabama. We still could have some
isolated to scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
along and ahead of the actual cold front before sunset. The heavy
rainfall and stronger thunderstorm activity should remain well
south of the area though in southern Alabama and Georgia.
Not a big difference in temperatures ahead of and behind the cold
front, but a difference none the less.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Between winds remaining around 5 to 8 mph and lingering cloud
cover through much of the overnight period, lows should only drop
into the mid 40s to lower 50s by Saturday morning. This may be too
cool. At this time, it looks like winds will keep fog from forming,
but low stratus could occur this evening into the overnight hours.
Expect clouds will decrease and break up from west to east towards
daybreak into the morning hours on Saturday. This should allow
for decent warming via insolation during the afternoon and should
allow high temperatures to reach the upper 60s to around 70
degrees in most locations.
During the late afternoon hours on Saturday into Saturday night, a
potent and large upper low drops southeast from southern Canada
into the Great Lakes region. This begins to transition upper level
flow over the southeast from a zonal to more of a southwest flow
pattern. Models differ on how far north this brings the departed
cold front that by then works its way into the Gulf of Mexico.
Some models are further north and bring precipitation along it
into the area as early as Saturday night into the daybreak hours
on Sunday. Others, bring in the precipitation on Sunday. For now
went with ensemble guidance which has timing in the middle of the
two. This brings isolated to scattered showers into northern
Alabama mainly late Saturday night into Sunday, before pushing
east of the area during the day on Sunday. With the expected
cloud cover and scattered precipitation, highs should be a little
cooler, only reaching the 60 to 65 degree range mainly. This
system will have more noticeably cold air behind it though. Strong
cold air advection behind that cold front should drop temperatures
into the lower to mid 30s across northern Alabama and southern
middle Tennessee Sunday night. Strong winds though around 10 to 15
mph with higher gusts of 20 to 25 mph should keep frost at bay.
This strong cold air advection will continue and strengthen on
Monday. Winds look to as well. So a Wind Advisory may be needed
for Monday. For now, lowered highs into the mid 40s (southern
middle TN/NE Alabama) and upper 40s further southwest on Monday and
kept winds just below criteria for a Wind Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
High pressure will build into the area late Monday night. Continued
strong cold air advection early followed by light winds overnight
and clear skies should allow temperatures to drop into the mid to
upper 20s after midnight. If winds end up being light sooner,
then lows could end up being in the lower 20s.
Zonal flow aloft returns towards the middle of next week. This
should start a warming trend again into the end of next week.
Highs will be slow to respond on Tuesday (only making it into
the mid to upper 50s). However, the rest of the week highs climb
back into the mid to upper 60s at least. A strong disturbance over
the desert southwest develops and moves east into the weekend,
but models are quite different concerning the speed and evolution
of this feature and precipitation with it.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
VFR conditions are forecast to shift into MVFR as lowered ceilings
move into the TN Valley overnight. Beginning at 5-6Z, IFR
conditions are forecast as ceilings lower to 700-900 feet. VFR
conditions return tomorrow as clouds scatter.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...HC